VoxEU.org: Recent Articles |
- Fiscal rules in the European Monetary Union
- How Russian banks anticipated and dealt with global financial sanctions
- Large trade shocks and economic crises
| Fiscal rules in the European Monetary Union Posted: Fiscal rules were enshrined in the founding documents of the European Monetary Union. This column presents the latest CfM-CEPR survey, in which the panel of experts on the European economy were nearly unanimous in agreeing that the existing EU fiscal rules require revision. Most panel members would opt for some combination of fiscal councils; more flexible, countercyclical, or expenditure-based rules; and increased fiscal capacity at the EU level. A smaller share of panelists would scrap fiscal rules altogether, leave fiscal policy to national authorities, and provide greater clarity that the EU would not bail out countries facing debt problems. A single panel member called for stricter rules with greater enforcement.  |
| How Russian banks anticipated and dealt with global financial sanctions Posted: Financial sanctions against Russia's state-owned and controlled banks were imposed consecutively between 2014 and 2019, allowing banks that would potentially be targeted in the future to adjust their international and domestic exposures. This column explores the informational effects of financial sanctions, showing that compared to similar private banks, 'not yet sanctioned' financial institutions immediately reduced their foreign assets while, rather unexpectedly, expanding their foreign liabilities. These informational effects crucially depend on geography, with targeted banks located further from Moscow decreasing their foreign assets by more and raising foreign liabilities by less than those located near the Kremlin.  |
| Large trade shocks and economic crises Posted: In December 1990, the Soviet Union withdrew from its bilateral trade agreement with Finland. This was followed by a dramatic collapse in Finnish-Soviet trade and a deep economic crisis in Finland. This column re-assesses the role of the trade collapse in causing the Finnish Great Depression in the early 1990s. The trade shock had a strong negative effect on the Finnish economy but explains less than one-third of the cumulative GDP loss. Domestic factors, including a financial boom and bust, exerted a much larger negative effect.  |
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