| Welcome to The Daily 202! Tell your friends to sign up here. On this day in 1800, President John Adams moved into the White House, becoming the first president to reside there. He lost the election that year to Thomas Jefferson. | | |  | The big idea | | Democrats fret about an enthusiasm gap in Virginia's gubernatorial contest |  (Washington Post illustration; Anna Moneymaker and Win McNamee/Getty Images) | | | Read the past four months or so of news about the Virginia gubernatorial race — the one pitting Democratic former governor Terry McAuliffe against Republican Glenn Youngkin in a war for suburban swing voters — and you'll find a consistent thread: Democrats are worried about an enthusiasm deficit heading into 2022. The race is too close to call. It's not particularly helpful to McAuliffe that President Biden left for Europe last week with the fate of his infrastructure bill and sweeping social spending package in doubt. Lockstep GOP opposition to the second proposal has left Democrats laboring to paper over intraparty cracks on a range of issues to deliver something, anything, to increasingly skeptical voters. But win or lose on Tuesday, Democrats will be assessing what worked, what didn't and what it means for the party's tooth-and-nail efforts to buck historical trends and cling to narrow majorities in Congress in next year's midterm elections. | | Democrats have tried everything in Virginia (or maybe it just feels that way). | | They brought in the heavy hitters, as political scientists Christopher Stout, Karina Mondragon, and Cara Nixon analyzed in these pages one week ago. "President Biden, former president Barack Obama, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.), first lady Jill Biden, Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams will all have appeared with McAuliffe before Election Day." (The visitors' goal was less to swing Youngkin voters to the McAuliffe camp than to change minds from maybe-staying-home to cast-one-for-the Dem and "to attract support from and mobilize African American voters — a key voting bloc in a state that's becoming more racially and ethnically diverse.) Democrats have seized any opportunity to tie Youngkin to former president Donald Trump, who lost Virginia to Biden by 10 points in 2020. Over at CNN, Dan Merica and Eric Bradner reported over the weekend how "Trump has looked to inject himself into the race, releasing a series of statements on the contest over the last few months and, most notably, calling in to a rally where he lauded Youngkin and said the candidate would 'do all of the things we want a governor to do.' John Fredericks, a Virginia-based conservative radio host who served as the chair of the Trump campaign in the commonwealth, told CNN on Friday that the former president also plans to headline a tele-rally in support of the GOP ticket on Monday, the night before Election Day." And then there were the fundraising emails from McAuliffe's camp. "I am stunned more people aren't worried." "We must put a stake in the heart of Trumpism on Tuesday." "Where's the enthusiasm, Olivier?" "If our voters turn out, we win. If they don't, we lose." It's not at all clear whether Democrats' strategy is a winner, however, given Trump is out of the White House and off the ballot. (Democrats also face historical head winds: Over the past two decades or so, the party that holds the White House has tended to lose the Virginia governorship.) | | Virginia isn't the first major electoral test of the Biden presidency — that was the recall targeting Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.), who ultimately beat back his opponents in a landslide. And it's not the only race on Democrats' mind this week: Gov. Phil Murphy (D-N.J.) is looking to hold on to his job. But Democrats have long hoped to lock Virginia down as a blue state, powered by the kind of suburban voters who gave Biden the White House. My colleague Cleve R. Wootson, Jr., took a searching look at the race in today's Washington Post and found "Biden's sinking popularity has emerged as a key factor dragging down Democrats' hopes of victory — and making the state look, once again, more like a battleground than a Democratic stronghold." | | "Interviews with nearly two dozen voters in this vote-rich region in southeast Virginia about three hours' drive from Washington found a profound sense of frustration that people haven't seen benefits of Democratic control trickle into their lives or their wallets." "Particularly troubling, some said, is that nearly a year after a coronavirus vaccine was approved, mitigation efforts and covid restrictions remain a part of everyday life, the economy doesn't seem to be working for the most vulnerable and intraparty infighting has stalled progress promised by Biden and the Democrats." "The waning support for Biden has not meant a wholesale defection to the Republicans — and the potential passage of massive infrastructure and economic measures in the coming days, including programs like universal prekindergarten, could help Democrats regain their footing." A Washington Post-Schar School poll conducted last week is packed with bleak news for Democrats. Likely voters in the state disapprove of Biden's job performance 53 percent to 46 percent, with twice as many in the "strongly disapprove" camp (44 percent) as on the side of "strongly approve (21 percent). | Education as a pivotal issue? | | Republicans in Virginia have been road testing a "school board" strategy that taps into simmering parental anger after a year and a half of mixed pandemic messaging about when and how schools can open and operate, as well as rules about vaccinating children. (The campaign frequently includes falsehoods or misleading claims.) The Post-Schar School poll found 24 percent of likely voters said education was their top issue, compared to just 15 percent saying the same one month ago. Democrats haven't had much of an answer on that specific issue. Tuesday could determine whether they needed one — and whether they need to retool as the 2022 cycle heats up. | | |  | What's happening now | |  Antiabortion demonstrators rally outside the U.S. Supreme Court on Monday. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images) | | The Supreme Court to hear abortion arguments in Texas abortion law challenges | | "The Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments Monday in two cases related to the nation's most restrictive ban on the procedure. Both are largely focused on the unique enforcement policy of Texas's law, rather than on its substance, which bans abortions once a fetal heartbeat has been detected," Rachel Roubein reports. | | "But Monday's hearing kicks off the most dramatic month for reproductive rights at the Supreme Court in the last three decades." You can follow The Post's live coverage of the day here. | As COP26 begins, Boris Johnson spells out what 2, 3 and 4 degrees of global warming looks like | | "In an attempt to stir world leaders into action, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson vividly outlined the difference that a seemingly small rise in global temperatures could make," Karla Adam reports. "Two degrees more, and we jeopardize the food supply for hundreds of millions of people, crops wither, locusts swarm," he said. "Three degrees, and you can add more wildfires and cyclones, twice as many. Five times as many droughts, and 36 times as many heat waves." He continued, "four degrees and we say goodbye to whole cities — Miami, Alexandria, Shanghai, all lost beneath the waves." Live updates from the climate summit are available here. | Kyle Rittenhouse's homicide trial begins | | "The homicide trial of Kyle Rittenhouse — the teenager who killed two people and injured a third last year amid the unrest that followed the police shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wis. — is set to begin Monday, the culmination of a polarizing case that rallied far-right groups and came to symbolize the country's bitterly entrenched divisions," Mark Berman and Kim Bellware report. | In Florida, DeSantis seems unbeatable | | "A year before the Florida gubernatorial election, the Republican governor has nearly $60 million in the bank. The GOP is on the cusp of becoming the state's majority party after erasing Democrats' enormous voter registration advantage. The Democratic field is splintering and support for President Joe Biden has collapsed in the state," Politico's Gary Fineout reports. "It's a situation that has alarmed Democrats, who fear that Florida's days as a battleground state are over and that national donors will write off their candidates." | | |  | Lunchtime reads from The Post | |  A view of the stage during the Opening Ceremonies of the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, Scotland. (Emily Macinnes/Pool/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock) | | Climate politics have shifted. That gives scientists and activists hope. | | "A sense of failure is similarly clouding the 26th edition of that meeting, COP26 in Glasgow. Most countries are far from fulfilling their pledges. Earth has continued to warm, with disastrous consequences. And tensions between some of the central players, including the United States and China, have diminished expectations of what can be accomplished," Karla Adam and Reis Thebault report. "But there is a key difference between 1995 and now — a difference that gives some climate scientists and activists hope. In many countries, there has been a shift in the politics of climate change. Green parties, once written off as fringe activists, are winning over larger shares of the electorate. Green ideas have also gone mainstream, with candidates from across the political spectrum portraying themselves as friends of the climate. And citizens have begun to vote with climate on their minds." | The GOP is reveling in the political upsides of a fraught Democratic Party | | "The House Republican conference is mostly avoiding the spotlight these days, getting fewer tough questions as the opposing party struggles. It doesn't mind at all," Politico's Olivia Beavers reports. "The general thought was the Democrats are good at government and they're showing they're not," said Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), his party's top member on the House Financial Services Committee. "The most helpful thing is that they're not doing the other pieces of legislation. … Most of the committees have sort of slowed down their legislative production because they're all watching the big game." | | |  | The Biden agenda | | Biden: 'The polls are going to go up and down and up and down' |  Biden arrives at the COP26 U.N. Climate Summit. (Adrian Dennis/Pool via AP). | | The president appears unfazed by lagging polls | | "After days of indulging in backslapping diplomacy at a time when bipartisan cooperation is in short supply at home, Mr. Biden emerged for his news conference on Sunday professing hope that both [his infrastructure and social spending bill] would pass the House in the next week and playing down the polls," the New York Times's Jim Tankersley and Katie Rogers report. "The polls are going to go up and down and up and down," Mr. Biden said. "Look at every other president. The same thing has happened. But that's not why I ran." | | "Biden's sweeping $3 trillion domestic agenda is finally coming together. No, seriously," CNN's Lauren Fox and Phil Mattingly report. "What to watch: The last remaining sticking points right now are negotiations over prescription drug pricing, how to assuage members who have argued they can't back legislation that doesn't include immigration when the Senate parliamentarian has said twice proposals won't pass Senate rules and whether there is any more Medicare expansion that West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin and Budget Chairman Bernie Sanders, independent of Vermont, can agree upon." | Biden issues last-minute endorsement in Ohio congressional election | | "President Joe Biden has issued a last-minute endorsement in Ohio's 15th Congressional District, backing Democrat Allison Russo in a Tuesday special election that could reveal hints about their party's strength in suburban areas," NBC's Henry J. Gomez reports. "Russo, a state representative, faces Republican coal industry lobbyist Mike Carey in the race to succeed Steve Stivers, a Republican who left the seat this year for a job in the private sector. Carey is running as a devotee of former President Donald Trump, whose endorsement lifted Carey out of a crowded GOP primary last summer." | How 'Let's Go Brandon' became code for insulting Biden | | "When Republican Rep. Bill Posey of Florida ended an Oct. 21 House floor speech with a fist pump and the phrase "Let's go, Brandon!" it may have seemed cryptic and weird to many who were listening. But the phrase was already growing in right-wing circles, and now the seemingly upbeat sentiment — actually a stand-in for swearing at Joe Biden — is everywhere," the Associated Press's Colleen Long reports. | | |  | Virginia governor's race poll finds, visualized | | | |  | Hot on the left | | Are Florida's professors being silenced? | | All eyes are on Florida after a civil rights group filed a lawsuit alleging the state's Republican-controlled government has repeatedly tried to make it more difficult to vote. But this particular case has an interesting twist, the Atlantic's Adam Serwer writes: "As Florida prepares to defend these new voting restrictions in court, it has prohibited three University of Florida law professors from testifying about the restrictions' impact." | - "The university has reiterated its commitment to 'free speech' and defended its actions by arguing that the professors were merely barred from undertaking 'outside paid work that is adverse to the university's interests as a state of Florida institution.' Under this definition of free speech, you may speak as long as you say nothing the state has forbidden you to say."
| | |  | Hot on the right | | A climate future fueled by the U.S. and Israel | | For the Jerusalem Post's opinion section, Fred Ziedman and Victoria Coates write that Israel and the United States should "embrace each other, not a radical UN climate agenda." "Even with ample supply, we are both still vulnerable to price spikes, but the answer to this problem is not increased imports from the Gulf. We don't need to ask for help to do this when we can do it ourselves by boosting production and, most importantly, by encouraging exploration and development of new resources." | | |  | Today in Glasgow | | | At noon, Biden will meet with Indonesian President Joko Widodo. The president will then attend a reception hosted by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson at 2:45 p.m. | | |  | In closing | | | These pumpkins? Pretty spooky. But counterpoint: "You're not on mute" could be much scarier. | | Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow. | | |
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