VoxEU.org: Recent Articles |
- A new survey-based measure of economic uncertainty
- Central banks on social media
- Consumption and service sector demand played a key role in the COVID-19 global trade collapse
| A new survey-based measure of economic uncertainty Posted: Uncertainty can have an important impact on economic activity, but it is not directly observable. This column presents the features of the European Commission's new index for uncertainty in the economy, based on its EU-wide Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, and its evolution in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the stringency of the related restrictions. It also compares the indicator to survey-based indicators of economic confidence, as well as to other existing uncertainty gauges, and offers a glimpse of the rich set of geographical, sectoral, and sub-sectoral breakdowns of the new data. |
| Posted: Monetary policy issues are discussed on social media by experts and also increasingly by non-experts, presenting a challenge to central banks using social media to communicate with their target audiences. This column analyses ECB-related tweets and finds that more subjective views and tweets expressed in stronger language are more likely to get retweeted, thereby shaping the tone of the virtual discussions. Both experts and non-experts are responsive to ECB communication – in most cases, information is simply relayed on Twitter, but there are also instances of controversial discussions being triggered. |
| Consumption and service sector demand played a key role in the COVID-19 global trade collapse Posted: The collapse of global trade during the COVID-19 crisis was stunning in its magnitude, but was milder in relative terms than during the Global Crisis. Based on data from 40 different countries, this column suggests that the key lies in the composition of demand. The contributions of consumption and services sector demand to the import contraction were notably larger during the COVID-19 crisis. This may have led to a relatively milder import contraction, as consumption and services production are less import-intensive than investment and manufacturing production. |
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