Why Russia hasn't won the war in Ukraine (yet) Hi readers! I usually edit this newsletter, but today I'm your author as Amber takes a much-deserved break. Thanks for subscribing. Russia has been attacking Ukraine since Feb. 24. That's 2½ weeks, much longer than many — including many Russians — had expected. Yes, Russia is causing immense damage in Ukraine. Yet Ukraine has put up a fight that has surprised government officials and outside experts. Instead of the swift takeover Russia had hoped for, its troops are gaining ground at a pace slower than anticipated as they continue to shell cities and drop bombs. Even some Russians are now publicly acknowledging the unexpected difficulties. "Not everything is going as fast as we would like," the head of the Russian national guard acknowledged over the weekend. "But we are moving toward our goal step by step, and victory will be ours." Russia clearly has the advantage over Ukraine when it comes to military might. So why is this dragging on for Putin and his generals? Here are a few reasons. Putin may have miscalculated He appears to have underestimated the level of Ukrainian resistance and overestimated how well his own military would do. It's not hard to understand why. Ukrainians, motivated to defend their homeland, have brought a fighting spirit to the conflict, encouraged by their president to stand their ground. The psychology is far different for Russian troops. Some captured soldiers have said they weren't told they'd be invading Ukraine until a day before the attack began and regretted their part in the war, according to Ukrainian officials. Some Russian troops don't seem as well prepared as others Experts say there's a wide disparity between units entering Ukraine in the north compared with those in the south. Russian troops crossing Ukraine's southern border were getting ready for the invasion well ahead of time, whereas troops entering from the north were gathered from throughout Russian and didn't have the same opportunity to train. Russian forces are suffering losses Earlier today, defense officials said Russia now has fewer than 90 percent of the forces it had assembled before its invasion. For all that, Russia has taken just one major city, Kherson, although it is making slow advances around multiple other cities. Ukraine is using drones effectively It's using Turkish-made drones, called Bayraktars, to demolish Russian equipment. These drones are slow and fly relatively low to the ground, and it's unclear exactly how many of them Ukraine has. (Estimates range between five and 20.) But they are able to take out tanks and personnel vehicles by dropping laser-guided bombs from the air. They've proved highly effective, helping to slow Russian troops as they try to invade Ukraine's biggest cities. Ukraine's air force chief wrote on Facebook that the drones are "life-giving." A lemur at the Kyiv Zoo has even been named after the drone. But for all this, Russia is still causing mass devastation across Ukraine — and it seems prepared to eventually prompt a regime change. Yes, its invasion has gone poorly compared with expectations, but it's unclear what could ultimately stop Russia even if it has been slowed. Can we trust Biden's promises that the U.S. won't go to war? The president has said time and time again that there are "no plans" to go to war with Russia over Ukraine. He knows the stakes are high, and he appears determined to avoid what could easily turn into World War III. Yet plenty of other U.S. presidents have promised no war, only to walk back their promises under geopolitical pressure, my colleague Aaron Blake notes. Here are a few examples: - In 1940, President Franklin D. Roosevelt told Americans "your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars." The Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor the following year, and the rest, as they say, is history.
- Lyndon B. Johnson made — and broke — a similar promise in 1964. A few months before the United States joined the Vietnam War, he promised not "to send American boys 9- or 10,000 miles away from home" for it.
- Barack Obama promised to get the United States out of Afghanistan. He also promised no American troops in Syria, before sending in a small number of Special Operations forces.
- Similarly, Donald Trump committed more troops to Afghanistan and struck Syria after promising as a candidate to "never send our finest into battle unless necessary, and I mean absolutely necessary."
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