VoxEU.org: Recent Articles

---

• Reforming the European fiscal framework: Increasing compliance, not flexibility
• Geoff Harcourt: A Cambridge economist and an Australian patriot
• Russia's war against Ukraine might persistently shift global supply chains
• Today’s inflation and the Great Inflation of the 1970s
• How tax and social insurance benefits can prevent women’s labour participation and wage growth
• The labour market disadvantages for immigrant women
• How to solve Europe’s Russian gas conundrum with a tariff
• Why paying in roubles for Russian gas and oil might matter
• Lessons from history for our response to Ukrainian refugees
• The impact of geopolitical conflicts on trade, growth, and innovation

Reforming the European fiscal framework: Increasing compliance, not flexibility Posted: Debt ratios of EMU member states, which were already high in some cases, have increased significantly during the pandemic. This column argues that the current review of the European fiscal framework should not only discuss the design of the framework, but also how to strengthen enforcement and increase compliance with the fiscal rules. Increasing the political costs of non-compliance – through a reduction of complexity of the framework, an increase in national ownership and transparency, as well as simplicity of assessment – could help achieve this. Adding more flexibility, exceptions, and discretionary judgement would be counterproductive.

Geoff Harcourt: A Cambridge economist and an Australian patriot Posted: The Australian economist Geoff Harcourt, a leading light of post-Keynesian economics, capital theory and economic thought, passed away in December 2021. This column, written by his son and fellow economist Tim Harcourt, outlines his life and times, including many contributions to both economic analysis and economic policymaking. Geoff regarded himself as "a Cambridge economist and an Australian patriot" and, as Tim says, "he reached his production possibility frontier in all aspects life – both professional and personal – and shared his knowledge and love with all".

Russia's war against Ukraine might persistently shift global supply chains Posted: The war Russia is waging against Ukraine has already halted most of Ukraine's production capabilities. Similarly, the sanctions raised against Russia by the international community end decades of economic cooperation across several economic sectors. This column draws on empirical evidence from over two decades of civil wars across the world to inform the debate on how international supply chains will adjust to the economic disruptions brought by violence, and how likely it is that the international economy will ever return to the pre-war situation.

Today’s inflation and the Great Inflation of the 1970s Posted: The recent commodity price surge, in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has exacerbated already elevated inflationary pressures. A new CEPR Policy Insight argues that over the medium term, as recent shocks unwind, inflation is expected to ease back towards targets, but the Great Inflation of the 1970s is a reminder of the material risks to this outlook. As inflation remains elevated, the risk is growing that, to bring inflation back to target, advanced economy central banks will once again need to undertake a much more forceful policy response than currently anticipated.

How tax and social insurance benefits can prevent women’s labour participation and wage growth Posted: Japan ranks 120th among 156 countries in terms of its gender gap, with women earning significantly less than men. This column uses survey data to investigate the employment and earnings dynamics of women in Japan over their life-cycle, and finds that tax exemptions and social insurance benefits for low-income spouses significantly dampen women's labour supply and earnings. There is a significant room to improve women's participation and earnings by removing the fiscal policies that disincentivise work and skill accumulation. The policy changes would also mean that the government could raise more tax revenues without causing a welfare loss.

The labour market disadvantages for immigrant women Posted: More than three million Ukrainians have left their country since the start of the war on 24 February. Due to mandatory conscription of men in Ukraine, the majority of these refugees are women and children. This column explores the labour market integration of immigrant women in Europe using data from the past two decades. It shows that immigrant women face a double disadvantage determined by both their gender and immigration status, and their labour market outcomes have not improved over time. These disadvantages should be considered when designing policies to increase labour market participation and success.

How to solve Europe’s Russian gas conundrum with a tariff Posted: In the search for additional sanctions against Russia, one idea which is often discussed is for the EU, or individual Member States, to ban imports of Russian gas. The economic consequences of such a step would be very severe in the short run. This column makes the case for an alternative measure that would minimise economic disruptions and which would have a strong impact on the revenues flowing to Russia – a special import tariff on Russian gas.

Why paying in roubles for Russian gas and oil might matter Posted: In response to sanctions imposed on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, President Putin recently announced that 'unfriendly' countries would have to pay for Russian gas (and perhaps oil in the future) in roubles. This column discusses the possible reasons for the announcement and the potential economic and financial implications if Putin were to follow through on it.

Lessons from history for our response to Ukrainian refugees Posted: Millions of people have fled Ukraine as a result of Russia's invasion in February 2022. This column argues that the massive refugee flow requires a united response from European countries, including the UK. Beyond providing shelter and food, it emphasises the importance of access to education for refugees. Episodes of forced migration following WWII underscore the importance of human capital accumulation. Ultimately, providing timely access to education can be a silver lining of forced migration, allowing refugees to invest in a brighter future.

The impact of geopolitical conflicts on trade, growth, and innovation Posted: The war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia have intensified the debate on the economic repercussions of a shift in global trade policy focus from mutual economic benefits of open trade policies to geopolitical considerations limiting interdependence. This column finds that a potential decoupling of the global trading system into two blocs – a US-centric and a China-centric bloc – would reduce global welfare in 2040 compared to a baseline by about 5%. Losses would be largest (more than 10%) in low-income regions that benefit most from positive technology spillovers from trade.

You are subscribed to email updates from VoxEU.org: Recent Articles. To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States