| Welcome to The Daily 202! Tell your friends to sign up here. Olivier is off this week, but fear not. Paige Winfield Cunningham, the deputy editor of The Post's 202 newsletter franchise, has you covered today. | | |  | The big idea | | In Ukraine, Russia is using the same tactics it used in Syria. Why it's not working. |  A Syrian boy displaced by war in Aleppo sells cotton-candy to help provide for his family. (Alice Martins for The Washington Post) | | | Everyone agrees: Russian aggressions against Syrian civilians previewed the horrors it's now inflicting in Ukraine. Hospitals bombed. Children slaughtered. Electricity and water shut off. War-torn Syria is getting more public attention than it has in years, especially with the news that President Vladimir Putin made his former Syria commander top dog in Ukraine. To many, Russia's bombardment of Mariupol feels like a repeat of the 2016 bombing of Aleppo. Once again, Russia is disregarding humanitarian corridors, spreading propaganda and committing war crimes. | - "As the war drags on, the parallels deepen," my colleague Ishaan Tharoor writes. "The ruthless tactics and bombing campaigns that Russia unfurled across the Middle Eastern nation served as something of a trial run for the Russian war effort in Ukraine. And, in less than two months, the battles are producing effects on the ground that are tragically familiar to anyone who experienced or watched Syria's decade-long implosion."
| | But — fortunately for Ukrainians — the two conflicts differ in some crucial ways. Syria may have emboldened Putin, but it's hardly a playbook for invading Ukraine, where Ukraine's stronger-than-expected defense is now calling Russia's military prowess into serious question. Let's explore some reasons. | Russia could hide its military shortcomings in Syria — but not in Ukraine | | Putin is sending loads more troops to Ukraine than he ever sent to Syria. At any given time, he put only several thousand troops in Syria to help President Bashar al-Assad's effort to squash opposition groups. That allowed him to mask any deficiencies by rotating his best units in and out, said Joel Rayburn, who served as the United States Special Envoy for Syria from 2018 to 2021. | | That's simply not an option in Ukraine, where Putin has sent an estimated 100,000 to 200,000 troops. Russia's military is on display to the world — and it doesn't look pretty. It's been slow to switch course, mired in clunky bureaucracy and operating with poor intelligence. For example, when Russia approached Kyiv it did so by sending a long column of tanks and other military vehicles which had to stay on the roads and were therefore vulnerable to attack by Ukrainians. In Syria, Russia mostly stuck to giving air support. (Here, my colleague Liz Sly outlines other missteps by Russia.) | - "[Russia's] institutional shortcomings in manning, training, equipping and leading — and just operating — came out very clearly," Rayburn told me.
| Russia is up against a united government this time | | In Syria, Russia aligned with the central government, led by Assad, against opposition groups who became fragmented over time. In Ukraine, Russian is up against the unified central government of Ukraine. Assad promulgated a global propaganda campaign labeling all opposition groups — including peaceful protesters — as "terrorists" aligned with ISIS. The oppressive regime's tactics forced divisions among the dozens of individual groups and clouded the initial rally cries for freedom. Eventually, the various groups lost the same vision for the way forward; for example, some just wanted Assad gone while others with more extreme views wanted to replace his regime with an Islamist government. It's a different scenario entirely in Ukraine. Russia's annexation of Crimea back in 2014 prompted Ukraine to start beefing up its military. Its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has been viewed as a strong uniter of the country. And Ukrainians have better morale because they're fighting alongside each other for their homes and families. | - "The Syrian resistance was never well-organized, whereas the Ukrainians have really held together," said Michel O'Hanlon, director of research for foreign policy for the Brookings Institution.
- "You had opponents of Assad working at cross purposes," said Steve Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations. "Unlike Ukraine, where you have a president, army and civil defense."
| Ukrainians are better armed than Syrians were | | In Syria, the Russians were mostly up against light infantry — not heavy weaponry — and virtually no air defense. But in Ukraine, Russia vastly miscalculated the ability of its bombing campaign to take out the country's air force and air-defense systems. | - "[Russia] didn't anticipate the kind of resistance," Cook said.
| | And because Ukraine enjoys broad international support, it has received a steady supply of weapons from the United States and allies. While the United States supplied some weapons to Syrian opposition groups, the scale was much smaller and the aid didn't come until a few years into the war. When Russia first invaded seven weeks ago, Ukrainians met with surprising success by using Turkish-made drones called Bayraktars to demolish Russian equipment. Now, as Russia appears to gird up for a second phase of its offensive, the United States is bolstering its supply of weapons to the country. The Biden administration is preparing to transfer armored Humvees and other sophisticated equipment, my colleagues Dan Lamothe and Karoun Demirjian reported. | Syrians are sharing their experience with Ukrainians | | My colleague Josh Rogin recently interviewed the leader of the Syrian Civil Defense Force, known as the White Helmets. While the group's primary role is to rescue, evacuate and give emergency care to civilians, its volunteers have recently focused on helping Ukrainians. They're preparing a series of videos that give Ukrainians practical advice on how to survive a Russian assault, with tips like using walkie-talkies instead of cellphones and watching for follow up attacks — known as "double taps" — seven to nine minutes after the first one to hit first responders. I caught up Wednesday with its leader, Raed al Saleh, who pointed something else out. He noted that Ukraine already has infrastructure in place for delivering aid, whereas in Syria it took years to get aid flowing. | - "The support and resources in Syria was something very different," he said. "It took many years to establish resources and NGOs."
| | |  | What's happening now | | Elon Musk launches hostile takeover bid of Twitter |  SpaceX owner and Tesla CEO Elon Musk at the E3 gaming convention in Los Angeles on June 13, 2019. (Mike Blake/Reuters) | | | "Elon Musk has launched a hostile takeover bid of Twitter — promising to unlock its 'extraordinary potential' as a private company — in the latest twist in a stunning multiweek saga," Aaron Gregg reports. | Talk of race, sex in schools divides Americans: AP-NORC poll | | "Overall, Americans lean slightly toward expanding — not cutting back — discussions of racism and sexuality, but roughly 4 in 10 say the current approach is about right, including similar percentages across party lines," the Associated Press's Hannah Fingerhut reports. | Biden heading to N.C., a battleground state, to make his case at an HBCU | Mariupol faces key battles in war's 50th day | | "Russia said its top warship in the Black Sea sustained significant damage from a fire that detonated ammunition on board — while Ukraine continued to claim that it struck and sank the ship in a cruise missile attack. As conflicting reports swirled about the fate of Russia's flagship — the missile cruiser Moskva — analysts said the episode could boost the morale of beleaguered Ukrainian forces and deal a symbolic blow to Russia as the invasion stretches into its 50th day," Andrew Jeong, Amy Cheng, Bryan Pietsch, Annabelle Timsit and Adela Suliman report. More key updates: | | |  | Lunchtime reads from The Post | | Poland builds a border wall, even as it welcomes Ukrainian refugees |  Poland's border with Belarus. Officials expect the wall will be completed by June. (Chico Harlan/The Washington Post) | | | "Rather than being welcomed into Polish homes, the vast majority of people crossing from Belarus are being detained or pushed back by Polish authorities," Chico Harlan and Piotr Zakowiecki report. "That stance, in effect just to the north of Poland's border with Ukraine, means two different groups seeking the same thing — refuge — are arriving to find what amounts to two different versions of Europe." | A new legal tactic to protect workers' pay | | "Antitrust suits have long been part of the federal government's arsenal to keep corporations from colluding or combining in ways that raise prices and hurt the consumer. Now the government is deploying the same weapon in another cause: protecting workers' pay," the New York Times's Eduardo Porter reports. "In a first, the Justice Department has brought a series of criminal cases against employers for colluding to suppress wages. The push started in December 2020, under the Trump administration." | Military sexual assault survivors and advocates demand accountability in a 'world of predators' | | "Service members who report an attack have to navigate a system that does not necessarily protect them. A group of lawyers, advocates and survivors is joining the fight to change that policy," the 19th's Mariel Padilla reports. | | |  | Latest action on state-level abortion laws, visualized | | | "As the Supreme Court considers a case that could overturn or significantly weaken Roe, antiabortion legislators across the country are newly energized, passing bills that could reshape the abortion landscape in the United States by the end of the summer." (Data as of April 13.) | | |  | The Biden agenda | | Schumer: Biden seems 'more open' to canceling student debt broadly 'than ever before' |  President Biden salutes as he makes his way to board Air Force One before departing from Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland on Tuesday. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images) | | | "During a virtual summit hosted by the Student Debt Crisis Center on Wednesday, Sen. Chuck Schumer — a leading advocate for broad student-loan forgiveness in Congress — reiterated his belief that President Joe Biden can easily wipe out federal student loans by signing an executive order. He also noted that, following Biden's fourth extension of the pause on student-loan payments, broad student-debt cancellation must be the next step, and said the White House might be looking favorably on the idea," Business Insider's Ayelet Sheffey reports. | Biden's blunt comments on Ukraine can veer from U.S. policy | | "Biden's off-the-cuff comment marked the latest example of the tension between his often-emotional response to Putin's brutal war and the international implications of a president's words. Throughout his political career, Biden has cultivated a reputation for unscripted candor, a trait allies laud as humanizing but adversaries deride as undisciplined," Tyler Pager reports. | The U.S. is considering sending a high-level official to Kyiv | | "It is highly unlikely that Mr. Biden or Ms. Harris would go to Kyiv, according to the person familiar with the deliberations. The security requirements for the president or vice president in a war zone are enormous and would require a huge number of American personnel and equipment to make the trip," the NYT's Michael D. Shear reports. "But it is possible that another official — perhaps a cabinet secretary or senior member of the military — could make the trip safely with a smaller security entourage." | Thinking small: Biden scrounges for ways to break through | Justice Dept. moves to curb police abuses in Washington, D.C., and Massachusetts | | "The Justice Department took steps on Wednesday to overhaul policing practices in Washington, D.C., and Springfield, Mass., such as how and when to use force, as President Biden works to fulfill his campaign promise to curb police abuses," the NYT's Katie Benner reports. | Biden administration unveils steps to boost equity in govt | | "The Justice Department is improving language access to its programs to help people with limited English proficiency better report crimes. The Interior Department is providing technical assistance to Native American tribes to help them apply for grants. The Energy Department is helping low-income households access programs to weatherize their homes and save energy," the AP's Darlene Superville reports. | | |  | Hot on the left | | Colleagues worry Dianne Feinstein is now mentally unfit to serve, citing recent interactions |  Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) questions Supreme Court nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson during her Senate Judiciary Committee confirmation hearing, on Capitol Hill in Washington on March 22. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP) | | | "When a California Democrat in Congress recently engaged in an extended conversation with Sen. Dianne Feinstein, they prepared for a rigorous policy discussion like those they'd had with her many times over the last 15 years," the San Francisco Chronicle's Tal Kopan and Joe Garofoli report. "Instead, the lawmaker said, they had to reintroduce themselves to Feinstein multiple times during an interaction that lasted several hours." | | |  | Hot on the right | | Will 2022 be the year of the Black Republican? | | "Put simply, movements like the Tea Party and Trumpism deepen partisan identity and make it far easier to identify who you're for and who you're against, even to the point of overlooking other traditional cues. As such, a black candidate who leans heavily into the movement's symbols, rhetoric, and harsh critiques of prominent Democrats not only becomes an acceptable avatar but also an aegis against accusations of racial intolerance within the movement itself," Theodore R. Johnson writes for the Bulwark. "Further, donning the partisan identity with the recognizable features of contemporary movement conservatism works to mitigate the perception of black Americans as beholden to big government progressivism that places these candidates at a disadvantage in Republican primaries from the outset." | | |  | Today in Washington | | | Biden will visit the Harold L. Martin Sr. Engineering Research & Innovation Complex at North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University at 1:05 p.m., meeting with faculty and students studying robotics and cybersecurity. At 2:15, he'll deliver remarks about the supply chain, infrastructure and "economic renewal." Biden will leave North Carolina at 3:30 p.m., arriving at Camp David at 5:10 p.m. | | |  | In closing | | Obama has a new Netflix show about national parks |  President Barack Obama stands in front of a mountain range in Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming in "Our Great National Parks." (Netflix) | | | "'Our Great National Parks' on Netflix opens with former president Barack Obama walking on the beach in Hawaii's Hanauma Bay Nature Preserve, where he says he spent time as a child. His mother would watch waves wash over coral on the beach when she was pregnant with him, he said," Nathan Diller reports. "The series showcases not only America's national parks but also wonders found in protected areas across five continents — and could inspire wanderlust in anyone." Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow. | | |
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