| Welcome to The Daily 202! Tell your friends to sign up here. The Associated Press reminds me: On this day in 1987, The Miami Herald said it had observed a young woman spending "Friday night and most of Saturday" at a Washington, D.C., townhouse owned by Democratic presidential candidate Gary Hart. | | |  | The big idea | | Russia says Ukraine is a proxy war, the U.S. says it isn't. It matters. |  A family from Mariupol are seen after registering at a reception center for internally displaced persons on Monday in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine. (Nicole Tung/For The Washington Post) | | | The United States and Russia have opened a new front over the biggest military conflict in Europe since World War II — a rhetorical dispute over whether America arming Ukraine to kill Moscow's forces means the former Cold War foes are waging a "proxy war." They're not, experts say. At least, not yet. There's no ironclad definition of a proxy war, but in essence it's when a powerful state uses a foreign military force — it can be another country's military, but can also be a militia or warlord — to achieve its own battlefield aims without directly waging war itself. Some definitions say the powerful state must also instigate the fighting, but that's not universally accepted. The two most important concepts here are the purpose, and the avoidance of direct involvement in the fighting. One reason the "proxy war" doesn't apply here is the core U.S. objective is helping Ukraine achieve a goal it set for itself: To fend off the expanded Russian invasion. | - "It's when the purpose is not about the proxy itself," Daniel Byman, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and Georgetown University professor, told The Daily 202. "If the U.S. goal in Ukraine wasn't really about Ukraine but about hurting Russia, and this was an opportunity to do so, it could be a proxy war. But this is about a U.S. desire to help Ukraine defend itself."
| | "I just don't think it's a proxy war," Norman Naimark, a Stanford University professor of Eastern European Studies and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, told The Daily 202. | | "A classic proxy war is where there are two proxies fighting, to begin with," he said. "There are two sides, where two big powers — who don't want to fight each other — then use smaller groups to fight each other." "The Ukraine case strikes me as particularly inappropriate," Naimark said. "This is Russia's war on the one side, this is Ukraine's war on the other side. We're doing what we can to make it a fair fight, but calling it a proxy war is the ultimate insult to what the Ukrainians are doing." Of course, whether it warrants the proxy war label, it still has the potential to escalate dramatically and dangerously. | | The issue most recently flared up on Monday, when White House press secretary Jen Psaki bluntly declared "this is not a proxy war." "This is a war between Russia and Ukraine," she said at her daily briefing, calling the label "Kremlin talking points." The "proxy war" question has been kicking around in the aftermath of two developments in late April. First, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin widened America's war aims in Ukraine to include seeing Russia military "weakened" and unable to quickly recover from the shocking military losses it has suffered in more than two months of war. Second, Austin hosted defense officials from 40 "nations of good will," as he called them, including NATO partners and non-NATO countries at Ramstein Air Base in Germany. The base serves as headquarters of NATO Air Command. In response, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declared NATO "going to war with Russia through a proxy and arming that proxy," and thereby risking an escalation that could trigger nuclear war. A couple of days later, President Biden said the proxy war accusation was "not true," but expressed concern about the language "because it shows the desperation that Russia is feeling about their abject failure" to conquer Ukraine. | - "It's more of a reflection not of the truth but of their failure. And so, instead of saying that 'the Ukrainians, equipped with some capability to resist Russian forces, are doing this,' they've got to tell their people the United States and all of NATO is engaged in taking out Russian troops and tanks, etc."
| | Byman agreed. "It helps them explain their problems, their setbacks on the battlefield, and satisfies [Russian President Vladimir] Putin's broader view of why they're in Ukraine, that the West is encroaching on traditional areas of Russian influence." | | But both he and Naimark acknowledged The Daily 202's argument that Austin's comment about a "weakened" Russia suggested U.S. interests had escalated from simply helping Ukraine achieve its own battlefield aims to getting something seen as geopolitically desirable in Washington — edging in the direction of being a proxy war. "If that were the overwhelming priority, the primary objective" then the conflict might be seen as "something like a proxy war," Byman said. But this isn't a Cold War-era "screw the Soviets" policy, he added. Austin's statement "gives me pause, too, and I wonder why he said it," Naimark told The Daily 202. "But we're looking for reasons, President Biden is looking for reasons, to keep the American public and the West engaged in Ukraine, and to want to help. And one way you do that is to say there are larger interests involved," he said. "That doesn't mean it's a proxy war." | | |  | What's happening now | | Roberts says leaked Alito draft opinion is authentic but not final, opens leak investigation |  A demonstrator holds a sign during a protest outside the U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday. (Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters) | | | "Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. said in a statement Tuesday that the leaked draft opinion that proposes overturning Roe v. Wade is authentic but not final, and he is opening an investigation into how it became public," Robert Barnes reports. | - "To the extent this betrayal of the confidences of the Court was intended to undermine the integrity of our operations, it will not succeed," Roberts said. "The work of the Court will not be affected in any way."
| Trump organizations agree to pay $750,000 to settle lawsuit with District | | "The Trump Organization and Trump's Presidential Inaugural Committee on Tuesday agreed to pay the District $750,000 to settle a lawsuit the city filed alleging the organizations misused nonprofit funds to benefit the former president and his family," Keith L. Alexander reports. | 4.5 million Americans quit or changed jobs in March, matching previous highs | | "Some 4.5 million Americans quit or changed positions, matching previous highs, reflecting continued strength in the rapidly growing labor market, where workers continue to have the upper hand," Abha Bhattarai reports. | As Ohioans head to polls, a Senate primary tests Trump's sway | | "Former president Donald Trump's sway over Republicans in this year's midterms will be tested on Tuesday in a crowded primary for the U.S. Senate in Ohio — one of two states where voters are heading to the polls," Annie Linskey and David Weigel report. | Slight majority say Trump should be charged with crime over Jan. 6 role, poll finds | First Mariupol evacuees reach safer city | | |  | Lunchtime reads from The Post | | Three dozen tycoons met Putin on invasion day. Most had moved money abroad. |  Soldiers from the Russian National Guard patrol the area surrounding Saint Basil's Cathedral on Red Square in Moscow on Feb. 24. (Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg News) | | | "On the February day he launched the invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin called to the Kremlin a group of his nation's wealthiest businessmen. The invasion was a 'necessary measure,' Putin told the group, according to news agencies. Alluding to the economic sanctions they would probably face from the United States and European Union, he added, 'We all understand the world we live in,'" Peter Whoriskey reports. "Each of the invitees was a stalwart of the Russian economy. Fourteen have ranked as billionaires. Their companies represented the nation's key industries — oil and gas, banking, chemicals. Some have met with Putin for more than two decades. Yet despite their ties to Putin and standing within Russia, many of them had been moving their wealth out of the country for years, documents show." | What would the end of Roe mean? Key questions and answers. | - If Roe is overturned, would abortion become illegal everywhere?
- "No. Individual states would decide whether and when abortions would be legal."
- Where would abortion access be most likely to change?
- "Abortion would probably become illegal in about half of states, although some of the forecasts differ."
- How would the number of U.S. abortions change?
- "Some women seeking abortions could get them in other ways, including traveling to a state where abortion is legal or ordering pills online from outside the country."
- Who gets abortions now?
- "Under the current law, around one in four American women would obtain an abortion at some point, according to research from the Guttmacher Institute."
- Without Roe, how would the U.S. compare with the rest of the world?
- "The United States would join a very small group of countries that has tightened abortion laws in recent years, as opposed to loosening them."
- When would this happen?
- "Not right away … It may be a month or more before the Supreme Court officially rules in the case, and that decision could differ from the draft that is circulating."
| | |  | The Biden agenda | | Biden races to achieve the near-impossible: A permanent point man on guns |  President Biden speaks during a reception to celebrate Eid al-Fitr in the East Room of the White House on Monday. (Susan Walsh/AP) | | Biden's trip to Alabama to highlight importance of US anti-tank missiles in Ukraine fight | | "Biden, who last week urged Congress to authorize a $33 billion aid package, will tour and deliver remarks from the sprawling Lockheed Martin manufacturing facility in Troy, which sits on 4,000 acres and is the final assembly plant for Javelins, the anti-tank missiles that have been critical to Ukraine's defense because they are lightweight systems that can be operated by one person and hit targets more than two miles away," CNN's Kaitlan Collins reports. | Biden meets with parents of abducted journalist Austin Tice | | "President Joe Biden met Monday with the parents of American journalist Austin Tice, who was abducted in Syria nearly 10 years ago, the White House said," NPR's Eric Tucker reports. | | |  | If Roe v. Wade were overturned, visualized | | | |  | Hot on the left | | 'DeSantis seems unstoppable': Florida Dems worry they can't beat the governor | | "Florida Democrats are increasingly worried that the candidates trying to unseat Ron DeSantis can't stop the popular Republican governor from winning re-election as the GOP solidifies its hold on the state's political infrastructure," Politico's Matt Dixon reports. "The Democratic primary between Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.), Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, and state Sen. Annette Taddeo (D-Miami) is just four months away, but some operatives and the party faithful say they don't believe any can realistically take on DeSantis. The perceived weak slate of candidates, combined with DeSantis' brand of bully politics, has even led national donors to shy away from the state." | | |  | Hot on the right | | Accusations against Rep. Madison Cawthorn multiply |  Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.) proceeds to the Senate chamber with other Republicans to oppose new mask guidance on July 29, 2021. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post) | | | "Although House Republicans have dutifully tried to present a united front, especially as regaining the majority in the midterm election this fall seems in reach, a growing number have publicly expressed their dismay with Cawthorn's behavior — and, privately, several Republicans have said they hope voters in Cawthorn's district penalize him in the May 17 Republican primary so Cawthorn's colleagues don't have to do something themselves," Marianna Sotomayor, Leigh Ann Caldwell and Mike DeBonis report. | - Cawthorn's reply: "Cawthorn has broadly cast these accusations and others — including the release of some potentially embarrassing images — as part of a 'coordinated drip campaign' and 'coordinated assault' by liberals and members of 'the North Carolina political establishment' who he says want to stop the agenda of former president Donald Trump."
| | |  | Today in Washington | | | At 2:20 p.m., Biden will visit a Lockheed Martin factory that makes the Javelin antitank missile in Troy, Ala. Biden will speak in Troy at 3 p.m. about the "security assistance" the United States is providing to Ukraine. At 5:15 p.m., Biden will leave Montgomery, Ala. He'll return to the White House at 7:35 p.m. | | |  | In closing | | The original Roe v. Wade decision also was leaked to the press |  Members of the U.S. Supreme Court on April 20, 1972. Front row, from left: Justices Potter Stewart and William O. Douglas; Chief Justice Warren E. Burger; Justices William J. Brennan Jr. and Byron R. White. Back row, from left: Justices Lewis F. Powell Jr., Thurgood Marshall, Harry A. Blackmun and William H. Rehnquist. (John Rous/AP) | | | "While it may be the case, as Politico states, that 'no draft decision in the modern history of the court has been disclosed publicly while a case was still pending,' it is not true that rulings have never been given to journalists before the announcement of the decision by the court. In fact, the result in Roe v. Wade itself was leaked by a Supreme Court clerk to a Time magazine reporter in January 1973," James D. Robenalt writes. "The Supreme Court clerk who leaked the story, Larry Hammond, told me about it when I interviewed him for my book 'January 1973: Watergate, Roe v. Wade, Vietnam, and the Month That Changed America Forever.'" | | Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow. | | |
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