| The big political debate in Washington right now is whether Democrats' climate and health-care bill — the one Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) negotiated in secret — raises taxes on Americans. Democrats say it doesn't, stressing that the legislation raises taxes only on big corporations that pay almost nothing in federal income taxes. Republicans argue it will raise taxes on the middle class indirectly, because those newly taxed corporations will probably pass their price increases on to consumers. The nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation said that's possible, perhaps even likely. The truth is harder to figure out. We don't know how companies will react. And as liberals point out, Republicans aren't taking into account the fact that Americans could save $1,800 a year on their energy bills by taking the government up on subsidized climate retrofitting in this bill. But for the record, the bill technically raises taxes only on big corporations, not on households. Democrats are grateful to have Manchin — who has approached negotiations wary of anything that cold make inflation worse — defending this legislation for them. But Democrats are also waiting on Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) to sign off on it. She has said she wants to act on climate change but in the past has been hesitant to raise taxes on companies to pay for it. It just takes one wary Democratic senator to sink this entire legislation. The midterms may come down to: Abortion or inflation?  Abortion rights supporters in Michigan in June. (Paul Sancya/AP) | Specifically, which issue is the most motivating for voters? That's what strategists on both sides are trying to figure out as they determine whether Democrats can keep control of the Senate — and not lose too many seats in the House — or whether Republicans will win the majorities in both chambers of Congress. (Plus various governor's mansions and state legislatures and many other races on the ballot in November.) Here are two scenarios that could play out, depending on which issue resonates most with voters: Scenario 1: The GOP's extreme posture on abortion pushes suburban voters away. Republicans' embrace of unpopular near-total abortion bans and their hesitancy in Congress to codify same-sex and interracial marriage rights could turn away women, who have started voting with the Democratic Party in greater numbers in the Donald Trump era. A recent Washington Post-Schar School poll finds nearly two-thirds of Americans think the end of Roe v. Wade represents a major loss of rights for women in the United States. This could also motivate liberals to vote in higher numbers than they usually do in midterm elections, although that Post poll found that some of these voters say they're uncertain of whether they will translate their frustrations to voting. Scenario 2: Voters don't like the GOP's positions on abortion, but they like the economy even less. President Biden's low approval rating suggests voters blame him and Democrats for the high cost of groceries, gas and rent. Making matters worse, there are now headlines about how the United States may be in a recession as the Federal Reserve tries to tamp down on inflation. These economic worries could wipe out any concerns that on-the-fence voters have about voting for the Republican Party. "Talking to, you know, these college-educated suburban women — I would say that the issue with abortion is that the economy still looms very large," GOP strategist Sarah Longwell told The Post's Hannah Knowles. Why Senate Republicans blocked the toxic-burn-pits bill  Jon Stewart and other advocates on Monday call for Senate Republicans to change their votes on the toxic-burn-pits bill. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP) | This is a growing controversy for Republicans. Here's what's going on. The backstory: Until last week, there was large bipartisan agreement in Congress that the federal government should make it easier for veterans who worked on burn pits in Iraq and Afghanistan to get health benefits for certain illnesses. Biden has long said he thinks his eldest son, Beau Biden, died of brain cancer because he worked at one of these toxic waste sites. Right now, the government puts the burden of proof on the veteran to prove their health issue is connected to their work. A bill in Congress would change that for many illnesses. The controversy: Last week, Republican senators suddenly blocked the burn-pits bill, even though they voted for a similar version of it just a few weeks earlier. Republicans led by Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania say they think the bill has an accounting gimmick in it that will allow the Department of Veterans Affairs to spend billions without needing congressional approval. Some 25 Senate Republicans changed their mind on the legislation, citing this issue. Democrats say that's a thin reason for blocking legislation that everyone largely agrees on. The fallout: At the very least, this puts the Republican Party in an awkward situation. Comedian and advocate Jon Stewart has been speaking at the Capitol alongside protesting veterans, earning lots of media attention for the cause. One veteran protester gas been widely photographed with a sign saying "Veterans blood is on Republicans hands." The Senate may try to vote again this week on this bill, where it could pass if five Senate Republicans change their minds — again. | 
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