The opening tip Chet Holmgren is out for the season, delaying Oklahoma City's rebuilding plans. | Chet Holmgren was the Thunder's long-awaited savior. Now what? The Oklahoma City Thunder had finally worked its way back to an enviable position: talented enough to titillate, yet still young enough to lose without repercussions. This had been a circuitous journey back to hopefulness, one set in motion by Kevin Durant's 2016 departure. There was Russell Westbrook's MVP year, a statistical explosion that never promised much in the way of postseason success. Then, Paul George's surprise arrival, which proved to be short-lived and quickly-forgotten. Chris Paul came along to replace Westbrook for a memorable pit stop, but soon he too sought greener pastures. Left in the wake of this superstar revolving door: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, 2021 lottery pick Josh Giddey and a comically long list of future draft assets. But June brought the Thunder, which won just 24 games last season and 22 the year before, a new franchise pillar in Chet Holmgren. By July, the No. 2 overall pick from Gonzaga had moved Oklahoma City back onto the "must-watch" list for League Pass die-hards, thanks to his standout play alongside Giddey in the Salt Lake City and Las Vegas summer leagues. Unfortunately, disaster struck in August when the 20-year-old Holmgren suffered a fluky foot injury while defending LeBron James during a Seattle pro-am game. Holmgren's injury, which will require him to redshirt his rookie season, provides fuel for critics convinced that his lanky 7-foot, 195-pound frame won't be able to withstand the NBA's rigors. More immediately, his absence destabilizes Oklahoma City's extended rebuilding effort right as things were starting to come together. The upcoming season was supposed to be a carefree, joyous experiment for the Thunder, with Gilgeous-Alexander serving as the lead option, Giddey pushing the tempo and Holmgren wowing viewers with his shot-blocking and shot-making skills. Thunder President Sam Presti drafted a wave of rookies and shored up his supporting cast by rewarding Lu Dort (five years, $82.5 million) and Kenrich Williams (four years, $27.2 million) with new contracts. While there were bound to be growing pains, especially for the skinny Holmgren, Oklahoma City appeared poised to climb over the Utah Jazz, San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets in the Western Conference's bottom tier. This promised to be a step forward, competitively and aesthetically. Even so, shared development remained the top priority for a roster that was the NBA's youngest last season. Holmgren and Giddey displayed instant chemistry in summer ball, anticipating each other's movements and complementing each other's strengths. As Giddey set up Holmgren on pick and rolls and in transition, Holmgren's length made him a natural lob target and his spacing ability created driving lanes for his Australian teammate. Until Holmgren returns, the 19-year-old Giddey will need to take on a greater scoring burden and turn more often to his shaky outside jumper. There's still plenty of time for Holmgren and Giddey to refine their on-court bond, though the same can't necessarily be assumed when it comes to Gilgeous-Alexander, who is entering his fourth season in Oklahoma City. The 24-year-old Canadian guard is arguably the NBA's most underrated player, averaging 24.5 points, 5 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game in relative obscurity last season. Gilgeous-Alexander is just beginning a five-year, $173 million extension, but he will nevertheless spawn a never-ending stream of trade rumors given that he is a rising star in a small market playing for a team that is years away from contending. Dejounte Murray and Donovan Mitchell fit similar bills, and both were dealt for pick-and-prospect-laden packages this summer. As it happens, Gilgeous-Alexander was on the other side of this recurring phenomenon as the centerpiece of Oklahoma City's 2019 blockbuster return for George. Set to enter this season without Holmgren or any major free agency additions, the Thunder's best path forward is to race to the bottom once again. Despite its war chest of future draft assets, Oklahoma City only possesses one 2023 first-round pick to chase potential franchise players like Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson: its own. Pairing Holmgren (7-foot-6 wingspan) and Wembanyama (7-foot-4 with an 8-foot wingspan) would be a mind-blowing proposition, a frontcourt tandem fit for "Space Jam 3." To maximize its chances of making that happen, Oklahoma City must brace for another round of purposeful late-season losing. Continually selling patience to a player like Gilgeous-Alexander is tricky, especially after shutting him down early to angle for draft positioning in each of the past two seasons. That savvy strategy has clearly benefited Oklahoma City's long-term outlook, but it leaves Gilgeous-Alexander at a disadvantage compared to peers who are enjoying postseason showcases and all-star plaudits. A franchise can only play that card so many times before it must deliver a long-promised payoff. San Antonio seemingly concluded that Murray wasn't a franchise-changing talent, and that it was better off pursuing a full rebuild without him. Perhaps Oklahoma City will be weighing a similar calculus by the February trade deadline or next summer. On the flip side, Murray, who is still just 25, has sounded thrilled by the prospect of riding shotgun to Trae Young on the Atlanta Hawks. Gilgeous-Alexander couldn't be blamed if he gets tired of starting summer vacation in March. Holmgren could still bridge this gap. The Spurs didn't have another budding star alongside Murray, and they definitely didn't have a franchise big man with Defensive Player of the Year upside whose stellar summer league debut drew praise from Durant. Likewise, Utah moved Mitchell in part because its roster lacked promising young sidekicks. If everyone in Oklahoma City remains focused on the vision, Holmgren's lost season could eventually be remembered as an annoying sidestep on the path back to consistent winning. After all, Joel Embiid blossomed into an MVP candidate after missing his first two years in Philadelphia. There are, also, plenty of grim alternatives to consider when young big men sustain serious injuries early in their careers. "Can't wait to hoop again," Holmgren tweeted on Sunday, expressing a sentiment that is surely shared by the Thunder and its fans, who haven't seen the team win a playoff series since Durant joined the Golden State Warriors. Given this summer's sharp change in circumstances, the wait is bound to be agonizing. |
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