| Welcome to The Daily 202! Tell your friends to sign up here. On this day in 1973, the Supreme Court ruled that states are allowed to ban materials that are obscene according to local standards. But, it said in its Miller v. California decision, such materials must lack "serious literary, artistic, political, or scientific value." | | |  | The big idea | | New poll has bad news for Trump, Biden, and the GOP field |  Former president Donald Trump disembarks his airplane at Newark Liberty International Airport as he returns home after speaking in Georgia and North Carolina on June 10. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post) | | | A new CNN poll hints at the conundrum for former president Donald Trump's rivals for the 2024 GOP nomination when it comes to exploiting his recent indictment for possible political gain. His voters, not theirs, are the ones most closely watching his legal troubles. And a plurality of Republicans doesn't want to hear from the other candidates on the matter, while a small minority want the non-Trumpers to criticize the former president. The poll is the first conducted entirely since Trump was arraigned on charges he illegally retained federal documents, including many highly classified secrets, and illegally defied various efforts by the government to retrieve them, including a subpoena, for about a year. In that sense, it's the first suggestion of an answer to the question of how this particular jeopardy, which even some of his past allies have described as extremely serious, might shape the battle for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Caveats: | - Like any defendant, he's presumed innocent until proven guilty
- A poll is a snapshot, not a crystal ball.
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Learn more | | | |  | | | | | The self-described billionaire remains the front-runner for the nomination. But some of his support inside the party has eroded, CNN noted its own write-up of its poll. "Overall, 47% of Republicans and Republican-leaning registered voters say Trump is their first choice for the party's nomination for president, down from 53% in a May CNN poll," Jennifer Agiesta and Ariel Edwards-Levy reported. "In addition to the decline in support for Trump's candidacy, his favorability rating among Republican-aligned voters has dipped, from 77% in May to 67% now, while the share who say they would not support him for the nomination under any circumstances has climbed, from 16% in May to 23% now," they wrote. | GOP to the others: Attack the case or shhhhh | | So that should redound to the other GOP contenders' benefit, right? Ehhh, not so much. Among all Republican and Republican-leaning voters, the CNN poll found: | - Just 12 percent say the other Republican candidates should mostly publicly condemn him.
- Another 45 percent say the others should not take a stand on the case either way.
- And 42 percent say Trump's rivals should publicly condemn the government's decision to charge him.
| | "Even those who do not currently back Trump for the nomination mostly want to see other candidates remain quiet on the indictment (54% say so), with 21% calling for Trump's rivals to condemn his actions and 25% saying they should condemn the prosecution," according to Agiesta and Edwards-Levy. Republican support for Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), Trump's nearest challenger, stayed at 26 percent. But the proportion of those saying they would not back him under any circumstances climbed six points to 21 percent, not that different from the former president's numbers. | | One recurring criticism some of Trump's rivals have leveled against him is that he not only lost in 2020 but cost the party control of the Senate and kept GOP numbers down in the House. And you could imagine the field raising fresh questions about his chances after the government charged him – something like "Oh, we all love Trump, but this indictment will hurt him with the independent-voting normies we need to win." Especially since 62 percent of independents in the poll said Trump should end his campaign now that he's been charged. But CNN's new poll found very little change in whether Republicans and GOP-leaning independents say the party has a better chance to win with Trump as the nominee versus with someone else. | - With Trump: 49 percent in March, 51 percent in June
- Without someone else: 50 percent in March, 49 percent in June.
| | As for whether the former president will win the nomination, he's held steady at 52 percent saying that's very or extremely likely. "Not at all likely" hasn't budged from 3 percent. | | Go digging in the details of the poll, and you'll find President Biden's overall job approval at 32 percent, and his overall disapproval at 56 percent. (Trump is at 33 percent and 59 percent, respectively.) That's not where an incumbent president seeking reelection wants to be, even one who likes to tell voters "don't compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative." Public opinion polls show the Democratic nomination is Biden's to lose, and it's not close. | | So how do Democrats and Democratic learners feel? CNN found 85 percent of them are either extremely (63 percent) or very (23 percent) motivated to vote. (For Republicans and Republican learners, the number is 87 percent.) So they're probably Blue voters, whether or not they are voters who are blue. | | |  | Politics-but-not | | | Click through to submit ideas for potential inclusion in our weekly roundup of stories you might not find in other political newsletters. Read more » | | | | | |  | What's happening now | | U.S. can send more aid to Ukraine thanks to $6.2 billion accounting error |  Airmen with the 436th Aerial Port Squadron place 155mm shells on pallets bound for Ukraine, on April 29, 2022, at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware. (Alex Brandon/AP) | | | "The Pentagon has uncovered a significant accounting error that led it to overvalue the amount of military equipment it sent to Ukraine since Russia's invasion last year — by $6.2 billion. The 'valuation errors,' as a Pentagon spokeswoman put it, will allow the Pentagon to send more weapons to Ukraine now before going to Congress to request more money," Dan Lamothe and Annabelle Timsit report. | Amazon 'tricked' customers into paying for Prime, new FTC suit alleges | | "The Federal Trade Commission filed a lawsuit against Amazon Wednesday alleging that the company tricked millions of customers into enrolling in Prime, its membership program that offers customers fast deliveries as well as access to other Amazon services like streaming TV and music," Caroline O'Donovan reports. | Schumer to call for AI regulation in keynote address | | "Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) will lay out an early vision for regulating artificial intelligence in a keynote address Wednesday morning, kicking lawmakers' efforts to both cultivate and control the development of AI tools like ChatGPT into high gear," Cristiano Lima reports. | House to vote again on a measure to censure Adam Schiff | | "The first votes on the measure are expected to come Wednesday evening. The resolution, sponsored by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), is similar to one the House blocked last week but does not include the possibility of a $16 million fine against Schiff. Luna had said that amount was half the cost of an investigation into the alleged collusion," Amy B Wang reports. | | |  | Lunchtime reads from The Post | | Nations pledge billions in Ukraine reconstruction amid staggering need | | "The United States and European countries announced billions of dollars in new recovery assistance to Ukraine on Wednesday aimed at addressing the staggering destruction caused by Russia's invasion," John Hudson reports. | - "The pledges, made at a two-day gathering of world leaders in London, added to the already unprecedented outpouring of Western support for Ukraine. But they amounted to only a fraction of the $411 billion that the World Bank estimates is needed to rebuild the country."
| National test scores plunge, with still no sign of pandemic recovery | | "National test scores plummeted for 13-year-olds, according to new data that shows the single largest drop in math in 50 years and no signs of academic recovery following the disruptions of the pandemic," Donna St. George reports. | - "Student scores plunged nine points in math and four points in reading on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), often regarded as the nation's report card. The release Wednesday reflected testing in fall 2022, comparing it to the same period in 2019, before the pandemic began."
| U.S. tracked Huawei, ZTE workers at suspected Chinese spy sites in Cuba |  A photo shows the Chinese technology company Huawei logo during the Vivatech Technology start-ups and innovation fair at the Porte de Versailles exhibition center in Paris on June 14. (Alain Jocard/AFP) | | | "During the Trump administration, U.S. officials reviewed intelligence that tracked workers from the Chinese telecom giants Huawei Technologies and ZTE entering and exiting facilities suspected of housing Chinese eavesdropping operations in Cuba, according to people familiar with the matter," the Wall Street Journal's Kate O'Keeffe reports. | - "The intelligence contributed to suspicions within the Trump administration that the telecommunications companies might be playing a role in expanding China's ability to spy on the U.S. from the island, according to people familiar with the matter. It couldn't be learned whether the Biden administration has pursued that line of inquiry."
| Eastman plan to keep Trump in power faces a reckoning, as authorities seek his disbarment | | |  | The Biden agenda | | Modi's White House visit tests Biden's democracy-vs.-autocracy pitch |  President Biden meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the Oval Office in 2021. (Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters) | | | "Denied a U.S. visa in 2005 over deadly religious riots in his home state, Prime Minister Narendra Modi comes to Washington on Wednesday for a state visit that will highlight his change in fortune and growing global clout, even as concerns about human rights and democratic erosion in India are intensifying across the nation he now leads," Toluse Olorunnipa, Ellen Nakashima, Gerry Shih and Abigail Hauslohner report. | U.S. is rejecting asylum seekers at much higher rates under new Biden policy | | "A new Biden administration policy has dramatically lowered the percentage of migrants at the southern border who enter the United States and are allowed to apply for asylum, according to numbers revealed in legal documents obtained by The Times. Without these new limits to asylum, border crossings could overwhelm local towns and resources, a Department of Homeland Security official warned a federal court in a filing this month," the Los Angeles Times's Hamed Aleaziz reports. | White House meets with drug firms on cost of overdose-reversal drugs | | "White House officials met with pharmaceutical company representatives Tuesday in an effort to address long-standing concerns about the affordability of overdose-reversal drugs that the Biden administration views as crucial to saving lives amid the nation's raging opioid crisis," David Ovalle reports. | | |  | What OBGYNs think about the end of Roe v. Wade, visualized | | | "Sweeping restrictions and even outright abortion bans adopted by states in the year since the landmark Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization ruling have had an overwhelmingly negative effect on maternal health care, according to a survey of OBGYNs released Wednesday that provides one of the clearest views yet of how the U.S. Supreme Court decision has affected women's health care in the United States," Kim Bellware and Emily Guskin report. | | |  | Hot on the left | | 'Terrible idea': Fellow Dems try to stop Manchin's presidential flirtation |  Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) walks up the Senate steps during a vote on an amendment to the Fiscal Responsibility Act on June 1. (Elizabeth Frantz for The Washington Post) | | | "Joe Manchin loves to keep his political options open — and now, as the West Virginia centrist flirts with a third-party campaign for president, his Democratic colleagues are taking him seriously enough to try to talk him out of it," Politico's Burgess Everett reports. | - "Manchin is never one to quash a mystery surrounding his future, whether it's pursuing his old job as governor or how he'd vote in former President Donald Trump's first impeachment trial. Yet even as many doubt he'll go through with a White House bid, Democrats also fear it could hand the GOP both the Senate and the White House if he does."
| | |  | Hot on the right | | Rep. Boebert introduces privileged resolution to impeach President Biden |  Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) during a U.S. Capitol news conference this month. (Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post) | | - "By bypassing the usual process for bringing legislation to a full House vote, Boebert's action would force lawmakers to vote on the measure in the next two days. But House Democrats announced Tuesday they will move to table the resolution, which would effectively prevent the House from considering a vote on final passage that would impeach Biden."
| | |  | Today in Washington (all times eastern) | | | Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing at noon. At 1:05 p.m., Biden will leave San Francisco for Joint Base Andrews. He'll arrive at 5:50 p.m. The Bidens will welcome Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the White House at 6:50 p.m. At 7:15 p.m., Biden will have dinner with Modi. | | |  | In closing | | What to know about today's summer solstice, the longest day of the year |  The Cobscook Bay in Lubec, Maine, on June 10, 2022. (Justin Grieser for The Washington Post) | | | "June has had a cooler than usual start in many parts of the United States this year, but today's summer solstice is a reminder that the hottest days still lie ahead. Daylight hours peak in the Northern Hemisphere as we mark the longest day and shortest night of the year — which many consider the start of summer. This year's solstice arrives at 10:58 a.m. Eastern time," Justin Grieser writes. | | Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow. | | |
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