| He's second in the polls behind Donald Trump. He's raising a lot of money and getting lots of headlines. So why is there a narrative out there that DeSantis's presidential campaign is struggling? Recent reporting says Fox News owner Rupert Murdoch isn't happy with DeSantis's performance so far, conservative media is starting to be more critical of DeSantis, and some anti-Trump Republican donors are considering giving their money to another candidate. Here's why. 1. DeSantis is far behind Trump in the polls. Trump easily leads DeSantis in a one-on-one race | If GOP voters had to choose between only Trump or DeSantis | | | | | | June 2023 NBC News survey | | The race is still in its nascent stages — the first Republican debate isn't until August (which Trump might not even participate in). The first primary state to vote is Iowa, in January. But DeSantis launched his campaign two months ago, Trump has been indicted a second time since then, and the Florida governor hasn't put a dent in the former president's lead. Some critics say he hasn't recovered from his technical disaster of a Twitter campaign launch, which glitched so much that people had trouble hearing much of anything. 2. He's all in on the culture wars DeSantis has pitched himself as like Trump but more electable. I recently looked at how Trump and DeSantis differ on policies. They're outracing each other to appear tough on immigration, crime and China. But DeSantis is way far out ahead of Trump on the culture wars — like anti-LGBTQ issues, critical race theory, abortion, "wokeness." If that's the main way he differs from Trump, some Republicans fear it's not enough to connect with Republican primary voters. 3. Expectations are high There are a number of powerful people in the Republican Party who do not want Trump to be the nominee again. Under his leadership, they lost the House, Senate and White House. So when DeSantis commandingly won reelection in Florida in November, they had high hopes that his presidential campaign would immediately break Trump fever. That hasn't happened. Trump spent the Fourth of July weekend talking to a notably large crowd in South Carolina. DeSantis supporters say to give it more time. But fairly or not, there's an argument out there that his campaign is struggling before it really begins. Let's take some of your questions about politics. Send me yours anytime. Q: How many registered Republicans, Democrats, independents are there? How does it differ from 2020? A: Voter registration is fairly evenly split between the two major parties, although independents represent a growing political voting bloc, according to a Gallup survey of voters and their party affiliation. Here's what Gallup found from June compared with November 2020. The political division of America | Party affiliation for past 2 presidential cycles | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Gallup party affiliation survey | | Of those independents, Gallup found that right now, about 48 percent lean Republican and 40 percent lean Democratic. Q: What happens to campaign funds after an election and the politician is no longer running for office? A: They can donate it to charity if they're really done with public life, Northwestern Law professor Michael Kang told NBC News. But more commonly, they hang onto it to dole out to political parties or other candidates, as a way to build political capital for their next chapter of life. Or they save it in case they want to run again. But they can't use it for personal expenses. After losing her job in Congress, Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) used some of her leftover money to run an ad warning viewers against a second Trump presidency during his CNN town hall with Trump. Q: Is Stephen Miller still advising Trump? A: Yes. When Trump was president, top aide Stephen Miller consistently espoused white-nationalist political beliefs, like the debunked notion that immigrants lead to rising crime. Since Trump lost, Miller has remained largely out of the public eye, but he's been working furiously behind the scenes to advance his goals. He launched a conservative legal organization, the American First Legal Foundation, to sue the Biden administration over policies it deems "radical left." The organization recently managed to shut down a $4 billion program that would have helped minority farmers. And Miller still appears to be in Trump's inner circle. Late last year, Trump advisers told our colleagues that Miller stays in close touch with Trump, contributes to his speeches and gave significant input on his endorsements in the midterm elections. |
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