| Welcome to The Daily 202! Tell your friends to sign up here. Dear readers: Olivier is taking a little break next week, but he'll be back here Aug. 1. | | |  | The big idea | | A cautious cheer for 'Bidenomics'? Let's look. |  President Joe Biden arrives to board Air Force One at Andrews Air Force Base, Md. on Thursday. Biden is traveling to Philadelphia to court unions with a speech at a Philadelphia shipyard. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh) | | | Since January 2021, President Biden's economy has been defined by roaring jobs growth and wage-smothering inflation. His poll numbers on that issue — one central to the voters who will decide whether he wins another term — are, to use a technical term, "bad." Those numbers can also be confusing, even baffling. Much depends on what's being asked, and how it's being asked. And the president has absolutely no choice but to campaign on his record, defending what he has embraced as "Bidenomics." So let's look at some of the data. Let's look, in particular, to how Americans perceive the economy, how they're doing and how their perceptions of how they're doing might be changing in a way that helps the president, who remains underwater in polls about how he has managed The American Wallet. | What is this 'economy' of which you speak? | | Last month, a Quinnipiac University poll found 24 percent of Americans said the economy was either "excellent" or "good." Fifty-two percent (including 51 percent of independent voters) said it was getting worse. | - But 58 percent said their own financial situation was excellent or good.
| | Slightly more measured, but still notable, a Fox News poll in May yielded 18 percent diagnosing the economy as excellent or good, versus 45 percent saying that about their personal finances. The Daily 202 has always been slightly annoyed about poll questions about "the economy" — macro or individual — because it blends too many ideas together. If you're facing bankruptcy because of medical bills, for example, are you going to say "the economy" is great? A Reuters/Ipsos poll this week found 36 percent expect their personal economic situation to improve over the next year, against 20 percent who expect it to get worse. "Optimists outnumbered pessimists among Democrats, Republicans and independents." But the most important piece of data — from a political perspective, at any rate — may have come from a poll earlier this month by the Economist/YouGov, which found 57 percent said the price of goods and services was the best measure for how the national economy is doing, versus 15 percent saying jobs and six percent saying the stock market. | | OK, so all of that points to the notion inflation — more accurately, purchasing power — is the driving force in American attitudes toward the economy under Biden. My colleague Jeff Stein has a new piece out about how fresh growth in real wages (so: wage growth when you factor in inflation) could be changing the public perspective. "With inflation finally cooling, workers' wages are now rising faster than prices. For most of Biden's administration, inflation rose faster than earnings, meaning most Americans were getting poorer even as the economy grew and unemployment fell," Jeff reported. | | "But that has now flipped, with last week's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showing that earnings this June, adjusted for inflation, were higher than they were at the same point last year. That has now happened for two consecutive months, after two years in which inflation was higher than wage growth. The reversal comes as fears of a recession have also eased for now, with banks such as Goldman Sachs ratcheting down their predictions of a downturn," he wrote. There's some evidence of an improving national mood, Jeff noted: "[T]he University of Michigan's consumer sentiment surveys, after months of strikingly negative findings, finally ticked up in July, soon after inflation-adjusted wages began to rise." Jeff pointed to a White House Council of Economic Advisers blog post in July that bragged private-sector wages, adjusted for inflation, are finally above where they were before the pandemic. | Fleeting? Lasting? No one knows. | | It's too soon to say whether this is a lasting trend or a blip. But Biden isn't just campaigning on the economy — Democrats expect anger at the Supreme Court rolling back access to abortion to help them in 2024 as it helped them in last year's midterms. And the president is running what we've called a quality-of-life campaign, too, taking aim at unpopular fees, corporate mergers, and food prices in what looks like an effort to convince Americans angry about being nickel-and-dimed he's on their side. Whether they agree, we may not know until November 2024. — Scott Clement contributed his polling wizardry to this column. | | |  | Politics-but-not | | | Click through to submit ideas for potential inclusion in our weekly roundup of stories you might not find in other political newsletters. Read more » | | | | | |  | What's happening now | | Ukraine begins firing U.S.-provided cluster munitions at Russian forces |  Police officers in Kharkiv, Ukraine, look at collected fragments of Russian rockets, including cluster rounds on Dec. 3, 2022. (Libkos/AP) | | | "Ukraine has begun firing U.S.-provided cluster munitions against Russian forces in southeastern Ukraine in a push to break up well-fortified Russian positions that have slowed Ukraine's summer offensive, according to Ukrainian officials familiar with the matter," John Hudson and Isabelle Khurshudyan reports. | - "The use of the controversial U.S.-made weapons, which has not been previously reported, follows President Biden's 'difficult decision' to order the delivery of the widely banned munitions last week, a move that human rights groups, European allies and some Democrats criticized due to the risk of civilian casualties."
| Poll: Returning to the moon a low priority to Americans | | |  | Lunchtime reads from The Post | | Rich lode of EV metals could boost Taliban and its new Chinese partners |  Miners work to extract gemstones including kunzite and tourmaline in a mine in the Parun Valley in Afghanistan's Nurestan province. In doing so, they unearth lithium-bearing ore. | | | "Afghanistan remains under intense international pressure — isolated politically and saddled with U.S. and multilateral sanctions because of human rights concerns, in particular the repression of women, and Taliban links to terrorism. The tremendous promise of lithium, however, could frustrate Western efforts to squeeze the Taliban into changing its extremist ways. And with the United States absent from Afghanistan, it is Chinese companies that are now aggressively positioning themselves to reap a windfall from lithium here — and, in doing so, further tighten China's grasp on much of the global supply chain for EV minerals," Gerry Shih and Lorenzo Tugnoli report. | After fitful starts, Trump Jan. 6 investigations hurtle toward charges | | "For 2½ years after rioters swarmed the Capitol, criminal investigations into Donald Trump and his allies for attempting to overturn the 2020 election percolated quietly. Now, just as another presidential campaign featuring Trump accelerates toward primary season, the assorted local, state and federal probes are bursting into highly visible action — seemingly all at once," Patrick Marley, Josh Dawsey, Yvonne Wingett Sanchez and Carol D. Leonnig report. | Trump's legal woes mount as trial dates and campaign calendar collide |  Former president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump enters the Moms for Liberty Summit in Philadelphia on June 30. (Hannah Beier for the Washington Post.) | | | "Generally, criminal defendants must be present in the courtroom during their trials. Not only will that force Mr. Trump to step away from the campaign trail, possibly for weeks at a time, but the judges overseeing his trials must also jostle for position in sequencing dates. The collision course is raising extraordinary — and unprecedented — questions about the logistical, legal and political challenges of various trials unfolding against the backdrop of a presidential campaign," the New York Times's Charlie Savage explains. | Travis King, U.S. soldier held in North Korea, had been detained in South Korea | Ex-officer Derek Chauvin to ask US Supreme Court to review his conviction in murder of George Floyd | | "Former Minneapolis police Officer Derek Chauvin will ask the U.S. Supreme Court to review his conviction for second-degree murder in the killing of George Floyd, now that the Minnesota Supreme Court has declined to hear the case, his attorney said Wednesday," the Associated Press's Steve Karnowski reports. | | |  | The latest on covid | | Gene variant may be why some test positive for virus with no covid symptoms | | "Scientists have found a version of a particular gene that may explain why some people who test positive for the coronavirus never develop any covid-19 symptoms. The discovery could help scientists open new avenues for developing vaccines and treatments," Aara'L Yarber reports. | | |  | The Biden agenda | | Biden meets privately with autoworkers' union president |  President Biden grabs a phone to take a selfie with visitors during the Congressional Picnic on the South Lawn of the White House on Wednesday. (Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post) | | | "President Joe Biden and United Auto Workers leader Shawn Fain met Wednesday at the White House, a union official and a White House aide told POLITICO, as labor contract discussions are beginning between the powerful union and the Big Three automakers," Politico's Zack Colman and Holly Otterbein report. | - "The meeting comes as Democratic officials and labor observers brace for a likely strike by UAW, which could have major economic and political ramifications. It also took place in the shadow of the UAW withholding its support from the president's reelection campaign for the time being due to its concerns over his handling of the electric vehicle transition."
| Biden returns to battleground Pennsylvania for the 27th time since taking office to sell his economic message | | "Biden's Thursday trip is aimed at highlighting where his clean energy agenda intersects with his push for new blue-collar jobs, highlighting private sector engagement the White House says wouldn't be possible without the administration's efforts," CNN's Kevin Liptak and Betsy Klein report. | | |  | How old candidates would be at inauguration, visualized | | - "DeSantis is one of five major candidates from Generation X, which has never occupied the White House, according to generational breakdowns as defined by Pew Research Center."
| | |  | Hot on the left | | Alabama legislature passes redistricting maps that Democrats say defy court order |  A map of a Republican proposal to redraw Alabama's congressional districts that the state Senate is expected to approve Wednesday is displayed at the Alabama legislature. The state House approved a different map proposal Wednesday. (Kim Chandler/AP) | | | "The Republican-led House and Senate in Alabama approved dueling congressional maps Wednesday that would increase the percentage of Black voters in the state's 2nd District — but not by enough, Democrats argued, to comply with a federal court order to create two districts in the state with at least close to a majority-Black population," John Wagner and Maegan Vazquez report. | - "The legislature is in special session this week following a Supreme Court opinion in June that found lawmakers previously drew districts that unlawfully dilute the political power of its Black residents in violation of the Voting Rights Act. While Black people make up about 27 percent of Alabama's population, only one of the state's seven districts is currently majority-Black."
| | |  | Hot on the right | | Covid changed Newt Gingrich's mind about health research funding |  Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich walks out to attend a portrait unveiling for former Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.) in Statuary Hall on Capitol Hill on May 17. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post) | | | "Former Speaker Newt Gingrich has, like the current crop of House Republicans, turned on the National Institutes of Health. A generation ago, Gingrich led a GOP Congress that dramatically increased NIH funding, believing it would drive innovation in medicine, life-saving treatments and job-creating economic growth," Politico's Erin Schumaker reports. | - "But in an interview with POLITICO, the longtime health research champion applauded House appropriators for their push this year to slash the agency's budget by $3.8 billion. Gingrich said that he — like much of the rest of the Republican Party — changed his mind because the pandemic convinced him that the NIH had become unaccountable."
| | |  | Today in Washington | | | At 12:05 p.m., Biden will get a tour of Philly Shipyard in Philadelphia. At 1 p.m., he will speak about "Bidenomics." Biden will leave Philadelphia for D.C. at 2:15 p.m. He's scheduled to be back at the White House at 3:30 p.m. | | |  | In closing | | Well … we did not win, folks. See you back here tomorrow! | Winning ticket sold in California for $1 billion Powerball jackpot |  A display at a Los Angeles convenience store on July 18 shows the projected winnings for the next Powerball drawing. (Mario Tama/Getty Images) | | - "The winning numbers were 7, 10, 11, 13, 24 and red Powerball 24. The winning ticket was sold at Las Palmitas Mini Market in downtown Los Angeles, according to the California State Lottery."
| | Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow. | | |
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