| Welcome to The Daily 202! Tell your friends to sign up here. We're lucky to have Colby Itkowitz, Sabrina Rodriguez and Michael Scherer leading the newsletter today. Olivier will be back tomorrow. On this day in 1981, a Major League Baseball strike ended after seven weeks. | | |  | The big idea | | Democrats worry that Black voters won't turn out for Biden in 2024 |  A voter holds a "Black Votes Matter" sign at the Tarboro Road Community Center polling place in Raleigh, N.C., in 2020. (Eamon Queeney for The Washington Post) | | | Democrats are worried about a potential drop next year in turnout among Black voters, the party's most loyal constituency, who played a consequential role in delivering the White House to President Biden in 2020 and will be crucial in his bid for reelection. Their concern stems from a 10 percentage-point decline in Black voter turnout in last year's midterms compared with 2018, a bigger drop than among any other racial or ethnic group, according to a Washington Post analysis of the Census Bureau's turnout survey. Such warning signals were initially papered over by other Democratic successes in 2022: The party picked up a U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania, Sen. Raphael G. Warnock won reelection in Georgia and anticipated losses in the House were minimal. But in key states like Georgia, the center of Democrats' plans to mobilize Black voters in large margins for Biden in 2024, turnout in last year's midterms was much lower among younger and male Black voters, according to internal party analysis. The drop in Black turnout has become a focus for Democratic leaders as the party reorients to next year's presidential contest. Biden's election in 2020 hinged on narrow victories in states like Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania that former president Donald Trump had won in 2016. Democratic activists are cautioning that the party can't afford to let support from Black voters slip. W. Mondale Robinson, founder of the Black Male Voter Project, shared a dire assessment of Democrats' potential turnout problems with Black men. | - In many of the battleground states, he said many Black men are "sporadic or non-voters," meaning they are registered, but have voted in one or none of the past three presidential elections.
- Robinson said Democrats spend too much time focused on converting "conservative-leaning White women" in the suburbs who they see as swing voters. Instead, he said, they should focus more on turning out Black men, viewing them as swing voters who are debating whether to vote or stay home.
| | "The Democratic Party has been failing epically at reaching this demographic of Black men — and that's sad to say," Robinson said. "Black men are your second-most stable base overwhelmingly, and yet you can't reach them in a way that makes your work easier." Biden's political team says it has received the message and is taking action, especially among younger Black men. | - "We have to meet them where they are and we have to show them why the political process matters and what we have accomplished that benefits them," said Cedric L. Richmond, a former Biden adviser who is now a senior adviser at the Democratic National Committee.
- He said there will be a clear focus on making Black voters aware of how they have benefited from Biden administration policies, learning from the errors of past Democratic efforts that fell short.
- "We will not make the mistake that others made of not drawing all the connections," he said.
| | Black voter advocates say the challenge is particularly acute among Black men, many of whom say they feel alienated from the political process and were hurt by policies pushed by both parties that led to increased incarceration and a decline in manufacturing jobs decades ago. Many say their lives haven't improved regardless of which party was in power, and are dispirited after the country elected Trump, life was upended by a global pandemic and violence worsened in urban areas. Many Democrats interviewed said they were less worried about Black women, whose voting enthusiasm has historically been more robust than that of Black men. Black women were a huge factor in Biden's victory in 2020. Advocates expect that trend to continue, particularly with Vice President Harris on the ticket and the appointment of Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, who both made history as the first Black women in their roles. Terrance Woodbury, chief executive of HIT Strategies, a polling firm focused on young, non-White voters, has been shopping around a PowerPoint presentation to liberal groups warning of the need to act soon to convince Black voters that they have benefited from Biden's time in office. | - Part of the problem, he argues, is that the party's focus on Trump and Republican extremism is less likely to motivate younger Black men than arguments focused on policy benefits.
- The messaging, he has argued, must focus on how Black communities have benefited from specific policies.
- His own polling has shown that voters' belief that their vote doesn't matter is the greatest barrier to voting among Black Americans.
| - Just 17 percent said they would be enthusiastic if he wins another term, 48 percent said they'd be satisfied but not enthusiastic, 25 percent said they'd be dissatisfied but not angry and 8 percent said they'd be angry about another Biden term.
- The poll also found that nearly 8 in 10 Black Americans say they would not consider voting for Trump over Biden and that 54 percent would be "angry" if Trump were to become president again.
| | Brittany Smith, the executive director of the Philadelphia-based Black Leadership PAC (BLP), which is working to turn out Black voters, said she has noticed a change in how Black people respond to her get-out-the vote efforts in recent years. In the past, she simply needed to remind people of where and when to vote. Now, she said, many express a cynicism about politics that requires a deeper level of persuasion. "There's not a night I don't go to sleep thinking about what turnout will look like in 2024," Smith said. "When you think about election cycle to election cycle, [Black voters] have been telling us for a long time what matters," Smith added. "They want to put food on the table, a roof over their head, send kids to good schools, live in neighborhoods that are safe. I don't think the issues are new, it's the way we talk about them and the way we're centering the voice of the people who live in these communities." Read the full report from Colby, Sabrina and Michael here. | | |  | Politics-but-not | | | Click through to submit ideas for potential inclusion in our weekly roundup of stories you might not find in other political newsletters. Read more » | | | | | |  | What's happening now | | Atlanta braces for possible indictments in 2020 election investigation |  Fulton County District Attorney Fani T. Willis (D), center, arrives at the county courthouse in Atlanta on July 11. (Brynn Anderson/AP) | | | "While the pace of [special counsel Jack Smith's] investigation has been unpredictable, Fulton County District Attorney Fani T. Willis took the unusual step of publicly telegraphing that she plans to announce a charging decision in the Georgia case during the first three weeks of August, a period that opens Monday," Holly Bailey reports. | Carlos De Oliveira makes first court appearance in Trump documents case | | "Carlos De Oliveira — the second person charged alongside Donald Trump in a case involving the alleged hoarding of sensitive government materials at Mar-a-Lago — made his first court appearance … on Monday morning and was released on a personal surety bond, with an arraignment scheduled for Aug. 10," Perry Stein reports. | | |  | Lunchtime reads from The Post | | DeSantis super PAC relies heavily on million-dollar megadonors |  Flordia Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) speaks to members of the media after an event on Thursday in Chariton, Iowa. (Sergio Flores for The Washington Post) | | | "Never Back Down, the outside group spending heavily to make Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis president, has raked in donations of $1 million or more from at least seven wealthy Republican benefactors or their companies, according to internal documents from the group, and had nearly $97 million in cash-on-hand at the end of June," Michael Scherer and Maeve Reston report. | - "The super PAC's fundraising haul includes millions from former supporters of Donald Trump who publicly cut ties after the 2021 U.S. Capitol riots, including Nevada hotel magnet Robert Bigelow, who gave more than $20 million, and Silicon Valley investor Douglas M. Leone, who gave $2 million. The two biggest donors in Republican politics during the 2022 midterm cycle, packaging magnates Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein, also gave $1 million each."
| Marijuana addiction is real. Those struggling often face skepticism. | | "At a time when marijuana has been legalized for recreational and medicinal use in more than 20 states — and the potency of the drug has been increased — many experts believe that most people can use it without significant negative consequences, not unlike enjoying occasional alcoholic drinks. But for [some users] the struggles to quit are real and complicated by the powerful cultural perception that marijuana is natural and therapeutic, not a substance that can be addicting," David Ovalle and Fenit Nirappil report. | America's military trails Russia and China in race for the melting Arctic |  A small boat is anchored to an ice flow during a dive operation off the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Healy in the Arctic Ocean on July 30, 2017. (Bonnie Jo Mount/The Washington Post) | | | "Once a lonely and largely impassable maritime expanse where countries worked together to extract natural resources, the Arctic is increasingly contested territory. As sea ice melts and traffic increases on the southern edges of the Arctic Ocean, governments are maneuvering in ways that mirror the great-power rivalries seen in lower latitudes," the Wall Street Journal's William Mauldin and Alan Cullison report. | The future of abortion in Florida could hinge on Hispanic voters | | "The campaign to secure abortion rights in Florida and create a haven for access in the South is facing a tough road to success. To build a winning coalition, rallying support from the state's Hispanic voters will be crucial," the 19th's Mel Leonor Barclay reports. | Who paid for a mysterious spy tool? The FBI, an FBI inquiry found. | | "When The New York Times reported in April that a contractor had purchased and deployed a spying tool made by NSO, the contentious Israeli hacking firm, for use by the U.S. government, White House officials said they were unaware of the contract and put the F.B.I. in charge of figuring out who might have been using the technology. After an investigation, the F.B.I. uncovered at least part of the answer: It was the F.B.I.," the New York Times's Mark Mazzetti, Ronen Bergman and Adam Goldman report. | | |  | The Biden agenda | | Why Biden's team soured on Dems' election lawyer |  President Biden waves while on board Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on Friday. (Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post) | | Biden publicly acknowledges 4-year-old granddaughter | | "President Biden acknowledged his 4-year-old granddaughter on Friday, offering his first public comment about Navy Joan Roberts several weeks after her mother, Lunden Roberts, and the president's son Hunter Biden reached a child support agreement in an Arkansas court," Meryl Kornfield reports. | | |  | How much rent prices have cooled in your area, visualized | | | |  | Hot on the left | | House Dems sideline one of their own leaders in the fight over food stamps |  A sign noting the acceptance of electronic benefit transfer (EBT) cards that are used by state welfare departments to issue benefits is displayed at a grocery store on Dec. 4, 2019, in Oakland, Calif. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images) | | | "House Democrats are intensifying their efforts to fend off cuts to the country's largest nutrition program. But one Democrat who would typically be leading on the issue is notably absent from their new strategy: the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee," Politico's Garrett Downs and Meredith Lee Hill report. | | |  | Hot on the right | | The deadly costs of Biden's Israel policy |  President Biden meets with the President of Israel Isaac Herzog in the Oval Office at the White House on July 18. (Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post) | | | "Earlier this month, President Biden addressed the recent increase in violence in the West Bank refugee camp of Jenin. After opining that the terrorist attacks against Israel were carried out by 'extremist' elements among the Palestinians, the president added an interesting caveat — that the terrorism was to some extent provoked by Israel's 'extreme' right-wing government. In other words, the president of the United States created a moral equivalence between Palestinian terrorists murdering Israeli civilians and the duly elected government of Israel trying to defend them, simply because Israeli politics are not to his liking," Chip Roy and Victoria Coates write for the National Review. | | |  | Today in Washington | | | There is nothing on Biden's public schedule this afternoon. | | |  | In closing | | No 'Oppenheimer' fanfare for those caught in first atomic bomb's fallout |  Lucy Benavidez Garwood remembers being roused from sleep by the force of the world's first atomic bomb, which was secretly tested in 1945 just beyond the southern New Mexico town where her family lived. (Paul Ratje for The Washington Post) | | | "Surviving 'downwinders' and their relatives" say what happened in Tularosa, New Mexico, in the aftermath of the first test of the atomic bomb "is a legacy of serious health consequences that have gone unacknowledged for 78 years. Their struggles continue to be pushed aside; the new blockbuster film 'Oppenheimer,' which spotlights the scientist most credited for the bomb, ignores completely the people who lived in the shadow of his test site," Karin Brulliard and Samuel Gilbert report. Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow. | | |
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