| Welcome to The Daily 202! Tell your friends to sign up here. This is Caroline, your D202 researcher, in today for Olivier. On this day in 1847, Mormon Church leader Brigham Young and his followers arrived in the Great Salt Lake Valley in what is now Utah. | | |  | The big idea | | 'This is going to be long. It's going to be hard. It's going to be bloody.' |  Soldiers from the 3rd Assault Brigade get ready to fire a mortar at their base near Klishchiivka on July 4 in the Donetsk region of Ukraine. (Ed Ram for The Washington Post) | | | It has been a month and a half since Ukraine launched its highly anticipated counteroffensive in early June, gaining back some of the ground Russia seized since its invasion in February 2022. But the effort has been more sluggish than expected; front lines appear to have moved only incrementally, and casualties are mounting on both sides. "There have already been significant amounts of casualties and deaths of Ukrainian fighters in this counteroffensive, so it is well underway," White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Friday at a conference in Colorado. "And it is hard going. And we said it would be hard going." Now, patience is key. This counteroffensive is not likely to end quickly, U.S. officials have warned. Let's take a look at how it's going and what might help Ukraine win more aid from allies. | Ukraine has regained half of the territory Russia seized | | In a Sunday interview on CNN, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Ukraine has "already taken back about 50 percent of what was initially seized" but faces a "very hard fight" to win back more. The counteroffensive began with nine new Ukrainian brigades, totaling maybe 30,000 soldiers, springing to action. But Russia had months to prepare for them, setting up dense minefields that have been successful in stalling the Ukrainian advance. That's just one reason any Ukrainian wins will be hard–fought. | | Russian President Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, claimed Sunday that Ukraine's counteroffensive has failed. He has been reiterating the sentiment since the counteroffensive began last month, insisting despite Ukraine's advances that the nation has "no chance" against Russia. Putin's most recent comments came during talks with his close ally Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko in St. Petersburg. "There is no counteroffensive," Russian news agencies quoted Lukashenko as saying before being interrupted by Putin, who said: "There is one, but it has failed." But Blinken had some strong words for Russia on Sunday: "In terms of what Russia sought to achieve, what Putin sought to achieve, they've already failed. They've already lost," Blinken said. "The objective was to erase Ukraine from the map, to eliminate its independence, its sovereignty, to subsume it into Russia. That failed a long time ago." | The counteroffensive could last months | | Blinken also emphasized that the counteroffensive will not be quick work. "These are still relatively early days of the counteroffensive. It is tough," he said, adding: "It will not play out over the next week or two. We're still looking, I think, at several months." That message has been consistent across the U.S.'s top brass. At a news conference last week, Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said: "I think there's a lot of fighting left to go, and I'll stay with what we said before: This is going to be long. It's going to be hard. It's going to be bloody." According to the independent Institute for the Study of War, this isn't particularly surprising. Setbacks should be expected in the initial phases of counteroffensive operations, the institute wrote in an analysis of Ukraine's efforts. This phase could also see the highest Ukrainian losses, the analysis said, and the success or failure of the counteroffensive might not be apparent for a while. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed some frustration at the pace of the counteroffensive, which started later than many expected. Officials and experts have attributed that lag in part to delays in the delivery of Western arms and the arrival of Western-trained soldiers. | | "I'm grateful to the U.S. as the leaders of our support," Zelensky told CNN early this month, "but I told them as well as the European leaders that we would like to start our counteroffensive earlier, and we need all the weapons and materiel for that. Why? Simply because if we start later, it will go slower." But the tempo of the current war effort could soon pick up. In a virtual speech to the Aspen Security Forum on Friday, Zelensky said that because of the success of mine-clearing operations on the front lines, counteroffensive operations may soon accelerate. | | In an interview with The Post in May, Zelensky described the stakes of the counteroffensive simply: "I believe that the more victories we have on the battlefield, frankly, the more people will believe in us, which means we will get more help." Experts and analysts agree: Victory would mean more support from allies. Gains in the counteroffensive could reignite waning political support for the war in some Western countries. Ukrainian officials say the ultimate goal, of course, is retaking territory — including Crimea and land seized by Russian-backed separatists. But the speed of those gains and how substantial they are will be important. As our colleague Karen DeYoung put it so well last month, Kyiv and its backers are hoping for a "rapid retaking of strategically significant territory." "Anything less will present the United States and its allies with uncomfortable questions they are not yet prepared to answer," she wrote. | | |  | Politics-but-not | | | Click through to submit ideas for potential inclusion in our weekly roundup of stories you might not find in other political newsletters. Read more » | | | | | |  | What's happening now | | Israeli parliament passes judicial overhaul plan as police clash with protesters |  An aerial view shows protesters blocking a road leading to the Prime Minister's office at a demonstration following a parliament vote on a contested bill that limits Supreme Court powers to void some government decisions in Jerusalem on Monday. (Ilan Rosenberg/Reuters) | | Former GOP senator Kelly Ayotte to run for New Hampshire governor | | "Former senator Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) announced Monday that she is running for New Hampshire governor, seeking to succeed Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who said last week that he would not run for reelection next year in the battleground state," John Wagner reports. | Vaccine politics may be to blame for GOP excess deaths, study finds | | "The political maelstrom swirling around coronavirus vaccines may be to blame for a higher rate of excess deaths among registered Republicans in Ohio and Florida during the coronavirus pandemic, according to a study published Monday," David Ovalle reports. | | |  | Lunchtime reads from The Post | | Biden lawyer who defended affirmative action grapples with diversity in her own office |  The U.S. Supreme Court in Washington. (Jonathan Newton/The Washington Post) | | | "When Solicitor General Elizabeth B. Prelogar defended college affirmative action programs before the Supreme Court in October, she cited the lack of diversity in a group of people the justices know well: the lawyers who argue before them," Tobi Raji and Theodoric Meyer report. | - "Just two of 27 lawyers who appeared before the court over the next two weeks would be women, Prelogar told the justices — a statistic that she argued could lead women to wonder whether they have a shot at arguing before the Supreme Court."
| States lose federal water funds as lawmakers redirect money to pet projects | | "Members of Congress have redirected roughly $2.3 billion in federal water funds toward political pet projects over the past two years, cutting at times into the money that could have been made available for poorer, needier communities," Tony Romm reports. | - But a similar lack of diversity to the one Prelogar pointed out in her argument has persisted for years in the solicitor general's office, which is part of the Justice Department and represents the federal government before the Supreme Court.
| The federal government could shut down in October. | | "Congress managed to raise the debt limit this year to prevent a U.S. government default. Lawmakers are working to reach agreement on next year's budget by Sept. 30 to prevent a federal shutdown. The House could begin voting as soon as this week on some of the spending bills to fund the government for next year; the Senate is working on the bills, too," Jeff Stein reports. | As inquiries compound, justice system pours resources into scrutinizing Trump |  Special counsel Jack Smith makes a statement in Washington on June 9. (Tom Brenner for The Washington Post) | | | "In his first four months on the job, starting in November, [special counsel Jack] Smith's investigation incurred expenses of $9.2 million. That included $1.9 million to pay the U.S. Marshals Service to protect Mr. Smith, his family and other investigators who have faced threats after the former president and his allies singled them out on social media. At this rate, the special counsel is on track to spend about $25 million a year," the New York Times's Glenn Thrush, Ben Protess, Alan Feuer and Adam Goldman report. | U.N.-North Korea talks begin on U.S. soldier who crossed border | | "The United Nations Command has started talks with North Korea's military on the status of a US soldier who crossed the border last week, a top officer told reporters in Seoul without offering further details," Bloomberg News' Sangmi Cha and Jon Herskovitz report. | - "It has been nearly a week since Private Second Class Travis King, 23, made the unusual crossing, with Pyongyang making no mention so far on the fate of the man it whisked away in a van surrounded by North Korean military personnel."
| | |  | The Biden agenda | | Biden campaign beefs up its data operation |  An unattended lectern in the New Hampshire office of Joe Biden's campaign on Feb. 1, 2020. (Philip Bump/The Washington Post) | | | "Political campaigns have increasingly employed data scientists and engineers to better understand the electorate and inform decisions on where to spend time and money. The Biden campaign says those efforts will be turbocharged this cycle, becoming central to how the campaign targets and connects with voters over the next 16 months," Tyler Pager reports. | - "As software programs become smarter and more powerful, they are increasingly able to provide nuanced profiles of specific groups. And technology provides a growing number of ways to contact them."
| Biden to establish national monument honoring Emmett Till | | "President Biden will announce on Tuesday the establishment of a national monument dedicated to Emmett Till, whose 1955 murder helped spark the civil rights movement, according to a White House official," DeNeen L. Brown reports. | - "The United States is at long last acknowledging the momentous role that 14-year old Till and his mother, Mamie Till-Mobley, played in shaping American history, Marvel Parker, who co-founded the Emmett Till and Mamie Till-Mobley Institute, said in an interview."
| Inside Biden's hidden campaign | | "Beyond the official campaign, much of the machinery that aims to reelect Biden has quietly been churning at full blast, as hundreds of staffers in the national Democratic Party, state affiliates, outside groups and the White House chip in on a broad strategy designed to exploit changes in campaign finance rules — even while the main campaign office itself has yet to be established," Michael Scherer reports. | | |  | All the times Trump's trial conflicts with the 2024 election campaign, visualized | | | "As the 2024 presidential race kicks into high gear, former president Donald Trump's travels to key states will be interrupted by visits to destinations far less common for White House hopefuls: courtrooms," John Wagner, Hannah Dormido and Shayna Jacobs report. | | |  | Hot on the left | | She was a GOP congresswoman. Her son is a transgender activist. |  Former congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.) and her son Rodrigo Heng-Lehtinen. (Shuran Huang for The Washington Post) | | - "She has been trying to change minds in closed-door conversations with Republican officials. (She declined to get into details, saying she didn't want to make anyone uncomfortable by naming names.)"
| | |  | Hot on the right | | Mike Pence struggles to gain attention and traction in longshot bid |  Former vice president Mike Pence speaks at a town hall meeting held at the Wicwas Lake Grange on Thursday in Meredith, N.H. (Cheryl Senter for The Washington Post) | | | "While Pence's advisers are emphatic that he will make the debate stage, the mere uncertainty is emblematic of the early challenges the Indiana Republican is confronting in his nascent campaign. Pence has struggled to gain attention or traction by running a traditional and low-key conservative campaign in a race dominated by firebrands like Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis," Marianne LeVine reports. | - "Vice presidents typically enter their party's nominating contest as strong contenders if not front-runners. Yet Pence is registering well behind Trump and DeSantis and much closer to long-shot candidates like tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, while also being far outraised by his rivals."
| | |  | Today in Washington | | | There is nothing on Biden's public schedule this afternoon.
| | |  | In closing | | 'Barbenheimer' shatters expectations — and box office records |  Ashleigh Sinclair, 27, of Orange County, poses in the outfit she dressed up in to see the movie "Barbie" at AMC The Grove 14 in Los Angeles on Saturday. (Jenna Schoenefeld for The Washington Post) | | | "If there was any doubt that Hollywood was suffering from franchise fatigue, moviegoers this weekend voted with their wallets for original films instead. 'Barbenheimer,' the portmanteau for the zeitgeist-conjoined new releases 'Barbie' and 'Oppenheimer,' has evolved from meme to market force," Michael Cavna reports. | - "The cleverly inventive confection from writer-director Greta Gerwig and co-writer Noah Baumbach made history by earning $155 million in its domestic debut over the weekend — the biggest North American opening for a movie directed by a woman."
- "The other half of the internet phenomenon, Christopher Nolan's 'Oppenheimer' — the three-hour period biopic centered on the 'father of the atomic bomb' — also flew past analyst projections, grossing $80.5 million domestically."
| | Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow. | | |
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